magnus_turing

Will we see 9000 or a retrace of 2014's trend

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I'm seeing some discussion out there around a repeat of 2014, and I have to say I'm interested to figure out what we'll see. I'm trying to play my cards safe here and take 50% of my in-money positions out right now to make sure I have more to invest if it goes down to 5800 as we saw projected a few weeks ago (even though it didn't materialize).

There are two possible wedges forming right now and of the two we just broke out above one of them this morning. Time will tell if we follow the trend from Thursday upwards to our next point of resistance. I think we have some resistance around 8500 as we traded in that range for a few days/week on the way down to the $6,000s a few weeks ago. Additionally we'll see resistance around 8900-9000. A break above $9000 with some volume around 20k in 24hr periods will be a strong indicator that we are in a bull market.

However with the volume well below 10,000 BTC             / 24hr period it's hard to advocate that we are in a Bull Run, there just isn't enough of a crowd supporting a turnaround yet. Any significant Seller can show up again like Thursday to push things back in the other direction. So for now I'm gonna assume we are still neutral and it's worth riding the fence with enough of a Long position to take advantage of a major upswing, but enough cash / dry powder to take advantage of significantly lower prices.

Good luck out there, like if you enjoyed my thoughts, and please shoot me a note so we can talk about it. Find me on twitter and follow me back if you want to share thoughts with me.
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