For this update, i've used Bitstamp's Bitcoin Weekly Chart to create my hypothesis. I've researched the weekly price chart as far back as August 15th, 2011.
Since my last posted idea, we've seen Elon Hype help boost BTC's price some. However, historically, this movement was expected.
Trigger:
-BTC W closes below 34EMA
Effect:
-50EMA is tested, price rebounds, 50EMA is tested again and fails
-if price is below the 50EMA, the 100EMA will also fail at support
-price then goes on to test the 200EMA multiple times and eventually recovers
Conclusion:
1. After BTC Weekly closes below the 34EMA, there has been a minimum of 1,000 Days+ before price reclaims previous highs
2. A rebound off the 50EMA is needed before a retest will fail sending price to the 100EMA
3. Should the 100EMA fail at support, multiple tests of the 200EMA will occur prior to a rebound in direction
Target Prices to Look For:
-$52,289 - if price closes at or above this previous high, this will be a strong confirmation BTC will go on to form newer ATHs in a month+
-$32,689 - when this price fails at support after a retest of the 50EMA, BTC W will slowly slide to the 100EMA
-$20,638 - a rebound off the 100EMA price PLUS a close above the 34EMA is needed for a recovery in price direction
The recent price action in BTC Weekly was expected. A rebound off the 50EMA could see price above for approx. 63-126 Days before retesting and ultimately failing to find support.
When this happens, BTC will then fall to the 100EMA which could act as support.
April 12th, 2021 was the last BTC ATH . Historically, there's been 1000+ Days between ATHs after this trigger i've noted. This equates to January 7th or beyond, 2024. Bitcoin's next halving is scheduled for Spring 2024.
BTC will reclaim $60K+ around August 2024 - January 2025 if the trend remains the same after the next halving.
*** 50EMA retest and fail (approx. $32,689) towards the end of September or sooner ***
As previously noted in my last idea (All Good Things...)
these indicators cannot take in account for how Elon's words may move the market.
...more of his FUD/Hype will determine if BTC will repeat history, or break it.
2021 has already proven that.
Since my last posted idea, we've seen Elon Hype help boost BTC's price some. However, historically, this movement was expected.
Trigger:
-BTC W closes below 34EMA
Effect:
-50EMA is tested, price rebounds, 50EMA is tested again and fails
-if price is below the 50EMA, the 100EMA will also fail at support
-price then goes on to test the 200EMA multiple times and eventually recovers
Conclusion:
1. After BTC Weekly closes below the 34EMA, there has been a minimum of 1,000 Days+ before price reclaims previous highs
2. A rebound off the 50EMA is needed before a retest will fail sending price to the 100EMA
3. Should the 100EMA fail at support, multiple tests of the 200EMA will occur prior to a rebound in direction
Target Prices to Look For:
-$52,289 - if price closes at or above this previous high, this will be a strong confirmation BTC will go on to form newer ATHs in a month+
-$32,689 - when this price fails at support after a retest of the 50EMA, BTC W will slowly slide to the 100EMA
-$20,638 - a rebound off the 100EMA price PLUS a close above the 34EMA is needed for a recovery in price direction
The recent price action in BTC Weekly was expected. A rebound off the 50EMA could see price above for approx. 63-126 Days before retesting and ultimately failing to find support.
When this happens, BTC will then fall to the 100EMA which could act as support.
April 12th, 2021 was the last BTC ATH . Historically, there's been 1000+ Days between ATHs after this trigger i've noted. This equates to January 7th or beyond, 2024. Bitcoin's next halving is scheduled for Spring 2024.
BTC will reclaim $60K+ around August 2024 - January 2025 if the trend remains the same after the next halving.
*** 50EMA retest and fail (approx. $32,689) towards the end of September or sooner ***
As previously noted in my last idea (All Good Things...)
these indicators cannot take in account for how Elon's words may move the market.
...more of his FUD/Hype will determine if BTC will repeat history, or break it.
2021 has already proven that.
Comment:
update with 34EMA included:
@DoubleOhCrypto
