BTCUSD: Bears Lack Conviction. Support Zone Still In Play?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD update: Price pushes into middle of broader support zone and is held up at the 9683 reversal zone boundary. In situations like this, recognizing the magnitude of the larger time frame levels allows for more effective decision making.

Small time frames look bearish . The move off of the minor resistance zone (11871 to 12316) looks dramatic compared to recent price action. Meanwhile price is not really going anywhere significant. For 15 days, this market has made little progress in either direction but gives the illusion that it is. Welcome to a more balanced market.

This price action is for the realm of the day trader. Small movements, reversals at minor levels and no big picture progress. In order to capitalize effectively on this price action, a great deal of skill is required. I am not day trading these markets, and I refuse to trade them of margin which means I cannot short them. So I base my perspective on the big picture and look to position myself to capitalize on the broader bullish move IF it returns.

Here is what I see: Price is gyrating between 10988 and 8656 (.618 area of broader bullish structure). It is also staying above the 9683 reversal zone boundary. In addition to that, based on the recent swing low established at 9989, there is now another reversal zone boundary at 9295. Within this area there are also a series of bullish pin bars that also happen to be within a minor support zone 10534 to 9989 (.618 area of recent bullish swing). As bearish as the most recent swing looks, (especially on smaller time frames) until price can work its way below all of this supportive structure, I am staying long and only looking to add.

Do not get your perspectives mixed up. I keep getting messages from people asking me why I am bullish when this market is so bearish . The time frames that look so bearish (1 hour or lower) do not carry much weight for my trading time horizon. I am looking for the broader move, and based on the current price action, we are just testing lows of a large magnitude support. Do not over react to dramatic movements often accompanied by extreme hype. Zoom out and start asking questions like: Is price breaking major supports? Is it making new lows with conviction? And most important: Have any major long term fundamentals changed? If the answer is no, like in this case in my opinion, then it becomes easier to see how these lows are a welcome buying opportunity for longer time horizon strategies like swing and position trades.

In summary, before making judgements or decisions, you must first have a point of reference. For me, I am staying focused on the big picture because that is the time horizon I am positioned on. Having this perspective allows me to see through the immediate noise that many get caught up in. At this point, I am waiting for candlestick reversal formations or price patterns to develop in this area in order for me to buy more. IF the market keeps selling (below 8656) then I will not take any action and hold what I have. The only reason why this works is because I am not using margin and my sizing is carefully calculated. Like I have written in previous reports, it is just a matter of bullish catalysts taking hold and driving the next leg. See beyond the herd, do not be part of it.

Questions and comments welcome.
Marc Principato, CMT |Author: Analyze Any Financial Market Like The Pros Using Price Action| | Cofounder (S.C.)

could be one of the possibilities.
Looks like we might get a proper capitulation now.
@MarcPMarkets touched 8400 on Coinbase. We at support level. What do you think on this price action? I personally cant see it breaking 7900 or below ( anything can happen though ) but that would be extreme selling at these over sold levels on daily charts.
Any update?
Thank you for your TA marc!
blood on the streets
Thank you!
Good read and solid strategy!
According to technical analysis when does a "broader Bullish move" get cancelled out and replaced by being considered a "broader Bearish move"? It seems to be becoming apparent to many that much of the move up from around $2K in Bitcoin was fuelled by speculation, fomo, hype, and being a gateway to Cryptos & ICOs. Now much off the hype, novelty and speculation of Bitcoin and Crypto/ICOs in general has begun to wear off. Regulators are beginning to step in, Wall Street has "mixed in". Things are getting much more complicated than a year ago. The Crypto market has now over 1400 other coins/tokens competing in this space. Investors in this space are increasingly looking for higher returns, forward looking technologies, leadership (ie Buterin) solid development teams, clarity about which way the currency is going. Speed & cost of transaction are also other significant factors. It appears that Bitcoin is losing favor on many of the aforementioned fronts & is rapidly coming back down to earth.
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