jarederaj
Long

Projecting From Stability Continued

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Currently

Bitcoin is 3 weeks into a period of extended price stability that encapsulates the last 25% of the bear market. Sentiment remains low and neutral. However, recovery will be apparent over the next 7 - 20 weeks. New platforms and markets will be announced or come online but positive news will not seem substantially change prices.

A gradual parabolic breakout from stability is likely after the next 7 weeks. Significant price discovery has been established in this range and the bottom of a new channel has been established, but could be tested. Continued growth is observed in institutional markets and new international markets. Major financial tools for institutions have been announced.

Crackdowns on ICOs and altcoin speculation have kiboshed unchecked growth in alt markets, which continue to decline. BTC's market domination is confirmed and will push over 50% of the total Crypto market cap soon.

Large leveraged positions against the altcoin markets still aren't available to most traders who operate in compliance with local laws, but they will be made available over the next 1 - 2 years.

Medium-term consolidation ends

Resistance to growth remained through June, July, and August. Bearish and moderate performance was accompanied by price stability that is still increasing. Heavy resistance remains before bullish sentiment can return. Sideways and comparatively moderate performance is likely through August and possibly through September.

New ATH sometime between November 2018 and June 2019

Heavy resistance is broken—drawn from the 2014 ATH and the December 2018 ATH—and moderate sentiment keeps bitcoin in a consolidation phase under the previous ATH for months. A new wave of adoption from new markets increases BTC volume to previously unimaginable levels. Full capitulation from alt market speculation exposes frivolous and or fraudulent Crypto assets and securities. Government crackdowns and arrests begin to pile up in alt market ICOs. Public outcry against abuse and fraud triggers international concern. Capital escapes from small alts to the top 5 - 10. There are less than 20 Cryptos with a market cap over 500 million USD. Speculation about the halving and institutional adoption lay the groundwork for a new round of irrational exuberance.

The red ascending wedge drawn from the 2013 ATH is difficult to break

We bounce off an ascending wedge and establish a new ATH between December 2018 and January 2020. The bottom of the channel is not retested. Capital flight into BTC from alts eventually pushes bitcoin through the ascending wedge from 2013, which altcoin markets will likely never push through.

Bitcoin's adoption rate rapidly grows. It’s fueled by speculation; institutional adoption will try but cannot dominate BTC ownership. Speculation attracts a new wave of users who are disenchanted with traditional investments. Bitcoin's young male demographic starts to diversify and enter new markets internationally.

Lightning wallets become the standard BTC UX. LocalBitcoin processes 15 to 30 million USD in transactions daily. Press praises BTC as a tool ready for “Main Street.” A practical use case for lightning in retail businesses is implemented in some markets.

Bounce off the new long-term channel in early 2020

Speculative fever ignites and BTC markets observe substantial resistance for the first time since Dec 2017. The new ATH is somewhere between 100k and 220k USD/BTC and the correction triggers a new BTC obituaries.

Hitting the top of the channel signals a medium-term bear market and moves prices into a comparatively moderate range, under 100K USD/BTC. Bouncing off the top of the channel completes before speculation about the halving takes hold of sentiment in early 2020.

1m USD price targets are commonly issued from established financial institutions by the end of 2020.

BTC: 3CX34Yg6o9GPNimDTF3e8UvYhm6QAmFX6N

moonmath.win
Zooming in on this chart... it looks like we're following the red line pretty closely.

Putting us at 1 million by 2020.
WOW.
Reply
jarederaj PotatoKing21
@PotatoKing21, IMO, these projections break down rapidly after about 12 week. Following the red line longer than that is extremely unlikely. Zoom out further ad see where all the trends converge, though.
Reply
PotatoKing21 jarederaj
@jarederaj, Oh, I gotcha. 1 million by 2023 ain't bad, either :)
Reply
jarederaj PotatoKing21
@PotatoKing21, It's insane. If that happens there are going to be some hilarious news stories about how early adopters lost all their bitcoin doing crazy shit. I think that's the thing to look forward to more than anything.
Reply
PotatoKing21 jarederaj
@jarederaj, Well, fingers crossed. I'm also starting to think that this bear market is really coming to an end, as well, so that just makes it better!
Reply
Also, can I ask about the newer, more conservative pitchforks on your site? They're less in accordance with your poetic prediction started here, bo?
Reply
bokeb bokeb
@bokeb, *price prediction stated here*

Swype typo
Reply
@bokeb, It's an ancient prediction that gets referenced a lot. I put it on the site because it has more longevity and better r squared value than the log prediction.

You can read more about that here:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547
+1 Reply
Sounds about right! 100% agreed on the price and time targets.

My only disagreement is I think the alt market will experience a number of cycles of crapcoin elimination, followed by resurgence of the best ones, some old some new- ultimately with at least 50% market share for alts in the early 2020s
Reply
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features Pricing House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Get Help Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing TradingView Coins My Support Tickets Get Help Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out