MarcPMarkets

BTCUSD: 6K Low Is Near. Setting Up For Double Bottom?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD update: Bearish momentum takes price as low as 6614 which is ugly for position traders, but again situations like this call for patience and perspective. The 6K low has not been compromised yet, and even if it is retested, it is very possible that a broad double bottom formation materializes.

There are still quite a few technical factors that offer plenty of potential for this market to reverse from the current lows. First, keep in mind that this market is revisiting the broad 8171 to 4983 support zone . This wide range is the .618 of the entire bullish structure originating from the 150 lows. It is around 3K points wide, which means the market can test the 4983 lower boundary and still be within an attractive buying level for position trade strategies.

Two additional levels are also important to consider: The 6K psychological support and most recent lowest low, and the 4559 reversal zone boundary. These levels can be used as short targets if you are courageous enough to short these markets into those levels, but I prefer to anticipate the bullish reversals instead. 6K is important because IF price finds buyers there, this market can establish a broad double bottom which offers larger magnitude profit potential (9Ks profit target area at least). The reversal zone is an area where price has a higher probability to reverse sharply if buyers intend to keep this market from falling apart. IF price closes below the reversal zone, I would steer clear of any new long positions until stability returns.

At this point, if you do not have a position, or managing a small inventory, then these lows present a very attractive place to add if you can afford to be aggressive. The problem is there are no signs that indicate any strength or reversal is likely. If you are managing a decent inventory (enough to demand your attention) then the best thing to do in my opinion is wait until the bearish trend lines are compromised before adding more. For that to happen, price needs to close above the 8K and 9K levels which means you forfeit the current wholesale prices in exchange for a more favorable and supportive market environment.

In summary, I have to repeat this often at these levels, do not react, instead look at the bigger picture and recognize where this market is. It may look ugly, but it is still fluctuating in a technical area where a broad bullish reversal is possible. The way to manage long positions through this is to be conservative with your inventory. If you have too much on, and you can't afford to lose it, then the only thing you can do is lighten it up to reduce risk, but keep in mind you are selling into a major low. I have been long and buying more since January for my position trade and will only add on a swing trade basis which means I will take profit on those units earlier if the opportunities present themselves. Otherwise, I will just be patient and wait for the bottoming process to play out. Based on the current structure, price can go below 6K and can become a double bottom variation or failed low which is the scenario I am anticipating.

Questions and comments welcome.
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Comments

Hi @MarcPMarkets ... In my opinion you are the best trader around here! It would be a dream if everyone would act like you, avoiding these massive sales. The price of $ 7,500 would be a perfect jump to BTC / USD. But all of a sudden, Mailchrimp (terrible service) and Twitter (not dead yet, why? Why it's old! LOL) try to manipulate the market with a lot of "whales" out there. In any case, working with these markets needs more than Technical and Fundamental Analysis. Experience to make good choices at crucial times is crucial. It really is like a place of the Wild West! Thank you for sharing your work. We enjoyed it very much! Have a great weekend.
+6 Reply
Thanks for sharing, Here's where I think BTC is heading.



+2 Reply
We've still some to go yet I believe.
+1 Reply
btc is very bullish - mid APRIL we will see a strong reversal in the mean time btc will be consolidating between $6500 and $7500 before it commences it bullish momentum.
best at these volatile time to remain and calm and assess before diving deep without understanding the depth of the water (danger). Hence how btc hasn't touched the 6K even though the bears desire to go even lower.
The 6k mark around 7k is the price that took off like rocket toward the end of 2017 and very likely we may see the same scenario revisited again.

Good luck to all and play your cards wisely
Sam
Reply
Agree with the potential double bottom!

But I think we might go lower.

Reply
$6k will fall. $4.4k will be next bottom.
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GeorgDer3 kenzboard
@kenzboard, If you say so
+1 Reply
Why does it keep bouncing to $7.1K every time it touches around $6.7K - $6.8K??

Bulls are use delaying the enivitable.
Reply
Thanks again for your insight Marc. For what it’s worth; I agree, 6 is unlikely to be the bottom of this bear. I’m going in strong there though as i anticipate a good bounce from that level, then 4,8 is my next buy area. I am still short bitcoin as that is the trend direction so it’s easier playing shorts than longs for the moment. 4,8 I derived from an equation using market cap strong support level. Good luck everyone.
Reply
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