Yes, there is a SLIGHT possibility of going lower but the ODDS of us going lower is much less because of many of the Nine "Tests for Buying" already achieved.
Chart pasted again below for easier reading of text bubbles.
The MAIN REASON for this chart is to demonstrate what is in the title: "It SHOULD Be Clear By Now We Have Found Bottom & Not Going Lower Than $5,920.72 on ."
Another reason for a NEW publication is I was getting tired of scrolling down so much on the previous one. :)
I still believe we are in a "Trading Range" for now for the purpose of ACCUMULATION.
More charts to follow later. For now, I need to take a nap to catch up on some sleep.
Happy Trading :)
It is good to go up?"
If you ask me something like this in a PM, it's unlikely I answer you in the PM because a question like that should be asked in the publication. WHY? Because others who are following may appreciate the question and would like to see the answer to the question as well. THIS keeps me from having to repeat myself multiple times. My time is valuable to me.
I probably should have been more descriptive... If I ever say something like that in the future, it means I expect very little price movement (percentage-wise) from the current location I made the statement. THAT has been the case. Its been very little movement (percentage-wise) up or down. We've stayed pretty much sideways.
1440m (Daily) TF: The Daily TF shows little movement up or down; mainly sideways since my last post.
1080m (18h) TF: If you were wondering WHY I said lets wait till we progress further in the 1080m TF and WHY I did not have much concern, the answer is when looking at the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI (ALONG WITH PHOENIX 1.393 INFORMATION).
The Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI WERE STILL HEADING UPSIDE "WHILE" The Green Line and RSX (Relative Strength Index) were heading downside. Which was sending a VERY mixed signal. THAT ALSO lead me to believe they would BOTH OFFSET EACH OTHER and would therefore equate to sideways action; AT LEAST UNTIL the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI made it up to the 100% level.
Since I'm currently doing work in my mining room AND doing business taxes, I'M "NOT" day trading on the 4h or 2h TF's. I'm simply using much higher TF's to look for MAJOR movement in the market that would justify me implementing a buy or sell action. That's what has been the purpose of these publications - More or less mid to long term TA; "NOT" short to very short term for day traders.
Our current location showed TREMENDOUS upside trend in Phoenix ARI continuing upside while the green line (In Phoenix 1.393) was coming downside. When I see mixed signals like this IN A BULL TREND, I equate that to SIDEWAYS ACTION.
360m TF: Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI both look like it may come down a bit. I drew a black line with an arrow to show POSSIBLE "future" price action.
"The Economy Is Failing, Cryptocurrencies Are A Threat To The Central Banking System:Jeff Berwick" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-Vormmz_MA
720m (12h) TF WITH FIB's:
$10,187.50 very possible:
360m TF "BEFORE" NEW CANDLE:
360m TF "AFTER" NEW CANDLE:
This may be a trap for those who are thinking of going "margin" long on those particular pairs. If you do, you are subject to get liquidated.
This also means BTCUSD would have to go up in order for this to occur BUT not necessarily. They can still dump those ALT/BTC pairs and liquidate margin long positions.
WHY would the Composite Group make this move? It's their way of ACCUMULATING more BTC when they dump those ALT/BTC pairs for more BTC.
18h (1080m) TF:
12h (720m) TF - :
6h (360m) TF:
I'm simply making this post to point out we are currently at my 0.618 FIB Re-Trace. This means my previous post about reaching that FIB "MIGHT" come to fruition with the price coming down to or near the lower red line of the larger wedge drawn in red. Will post another chart soon.
"lot of spam bra! last 10 posts in the idea stream, have to unfollow!"
That's certainly fine by me. I'm not posting for people to be along simply for "the ride." I make posts for people to learn. I know personally that many who follow me probably wish I would update more and on more pairs.
So, if you have a problem with the number of posts I make, you need to unfollow NOW. It will not hurt my feelings in the least.
With Indicators - 360m TF:
I wanted followers to COMPARE the chart below with this Schematic Image - https://i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png
Wyckoff Schematics MAINLY referred to stocks NOT crypto. Stocks hardly EVER drop down the percentages crypto does in such a short time span. Nor do they hardly EVER pump up the percentages crypto does in such a short time span. This is the main reason the HIGH of an Automatic Rally in Phase A is hardly ever up to the height of the highs in Phase B of an Accumulation Schematic.
I'm simply pointing this out to say this information could be used to your disadvantage if you're not careful. Meaning, it's STILL possible they take this down to the 0.618 FIB at $8,123.82 before they begin a SPRING with A TEST.
Remember, as I posted in the note in the chart above, a SPRING is a price move BELOW the support level of the Trading Range (TR) established in phases A and B that quickly reverses and moves back into the TR. It is an example of a bear trap because the drop BELOW support APPEARS to signal resumption of the downtrend. IN REALITY, THOUGH, this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers, or bears. In Wyckoff's method, a SUCCESSFUL test of supply represented by a spring (or a shakeout) provides a high-probability trading opportunity.
IMPORTANT: A low-volume spring (or a low-volume test of a shakeout) indicates that the stock is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position. The key is checking the volume in our current location compared to previous downward price movements.
Reading from your recommended Wyckoff link, would you agree that if we do not get back to the trading range soon (1-2 days?) we may be in phase D of distribution schematic #1? http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method
IF it goes lower BUT NOT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS LOW AT $5,920.72 on BitStamp, THEN my SECOND OPTION with BLUE TEXT BUBBLES will be the PROPER INDICATION of our current location within the Accumulation Schematic. Which would also force me to EDIT the Trading Range (TR).
If it goes lower than $5,920.72, then yes, we have a SOW (Sign of Weakness) and Wyckoff Distribution Schematic is in play.
My thoughts are the following: We have many more ADOPTERS who have come to the space and the number of adopters increases daily. Those adopters bring "capital" with them which increases "liquidity" in the space to absorb "supply" and therefore increase "demand." So, I'm leaning more towards us currently being in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. I'm simply waiting for confirmation as to where we are located within the schematic. Is it the Blue text bubbles or the Black text bubbles? That's the confirmation I'm waiting on.
Also, it COULD simply be the TRUSTE of the Mt. Gox Bitcoins is simply applying a LOT of downward pressure with his selloff ALONG WITH selloff of other big players in the space to shakeout weak hands.
Keep in mind, WHILE they are dumping bitcoin for US dollars, they are ALSO DUMPING ALT COINS FOR BITCOIN.
What importance is this realization? THEY ARE ACCUMULATING BITCOIN with the Alt-Coins they are dumping for bitcoin. This could simply be a means of DISTRIBUTION WHILE ACCUMULATING.
What are they "accumulating?" FIAT (USD, EUR, JPY, etc...)
Why would they want or need FIAT?
To have FIAT for a future date to pump up the alts again that are also traded in FIAT. Such as XMR, ETH, ETC, ZEC, STR, XRP, REP, DASH, etc... Poloniex also trades those coins in FIAT.
WE ARE STILL IN OUR DOWNWARD MOVE ON THE DAILY (1440m) TF:
$8,120 (0.618 FIB) IS STILL IN PLAY:
When there is a retrace DOWN the 0.0% should be at the HIGH and the 1.0% coordinate should be at the LOW to find the 0.618% re-trace
When there is a retrace UPWARD the 0.0% should be at the LOW and the 1.0% coordinate should be at the HIGH to find the 1.618% new ATH.
Which is also another reason WHY you see the option in a small little box to REVERSE the direction of the FIB inside the INPUT settings.
If you go to STYLE you will see the option to REVERSE.
Sure, you're welcome. However, I haven't put in a lot of hard work like I used to. I've been tied up lately with taxes and remodel of my mining room. As well as working on my dad's mining room and a friend of mine in Nashville with his new mining room.
I'll be back to full time and more posting in about another 4 to 5 weeks.
Key question: you seem to indicate that spring is only valid (as an uptrend predictor) if it occurs on lower volume than previous sell offs. If I understood this part correct, than it does not look good, especially for GDAX data, where volume was even higher than 6k dip.
Thanks for the reply and respectful comment.
As to your "Key question," the "volume" is the ONLY concern I've had on this CURRENT dip. The only thing of significance to attribute to the volume being higher than the previous large dip at 6k is the Mt. Gox sell off from that guy in Japan.
Also, the current high volume also prompted me to take another look at the schematic and prompted me to point out the POSSIBILITY of where we actually are in the schematic by posting the BLUE text bubbles. Which would also force me to change the coordinates of the "Current Trading Range."
In case you were not aware:
We have NORMALLY had MAJOR consolidation events in the following ranges:
End of December to Beginning of January
End of May to Beginning of June
THOSE TWO TIME RANGES ABOVE ARE NORMALLY PRECLUDED WITH AT LEAST TRIPLE MARK-UP FROM THE "LOW" UP TO THE NEW ATH BEFORE ITS MAJOR CONSOLIDATION EVENT.
The chart below is an OLD CHART from another OLD publication: