ProwdClown

It SHOULD Be Clear By Now We Have LIKELY Found Bottom & Not...

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
...Going Lower Than $5,920.72 on BitStamp ."

Yes, there is a SLIGHT possibility of going lower but the ODDS of us going lower is much less because of many of the Nine "Tests for Buying" already achieved.

Chart pasted again below for easier reading of text bubbles.



The MAIN REASON for this chart is to demonstrate what is in the title: "It SHOULD Be Clear By Now We Have Found Bottom & Not Going Lower Than $5,920.72 on BitStamp ."

Another reason for a NEW publication is I was getting tired of scrolling down so much on the previous one. :)

I still believe we are in a "Trading Range" for now for the purpose of ACCUMULATION.

More charts to follow later. For now, I need to take a nap to catch up on some sleep.

Happy Trading :)
Comment: Simply showing a POSSIBILITY with waves along the way up in this 360m TF:

Comment: Editing current POSSIBILITY - 360m TF:

Comment: It may not go up to the blue before coming down. It may turn down sooner at the red vertical time line. This is when looking at the 180m TF:

Comment: 1080m (18h) TF:

Comment: The blue line with arrow I have angled coming down to the bottom red line of a wedge will not necessarily occur. This is me simply thinking out loud WONDERING if it could. Do NOT assume I'm saying that's what we're about to do. I'm simply waiting for more information to come in as things play out.
Comment: Showing progress of the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI in the 1080m TF:



180m TF:

Comment: I was asked in a PM: "What does showing progress in that case mean?
It is good to go up?"

If you ask me something like this in a PM, it's unlikely I answer you in the PM because a question like that should be asked in the publication. WHY? Because others who are following may appreciate the question and would like to see the answer to the question as well. THIS keeps me from having to repeat myself multiple times. My time is valuable to me.

I probably should have been more descriptive... If I ever say something like that in the future, it means I expect very little price movement (percentage-wise) from the current location I made the statement. THAT has been the case. Its been very little movement (percentage-wise) up or down. We've stayed pretty much sideways.

1440m (Daily) TF: The Daily TF shows little movement up or down; mainly sideways since my last post.



1080m (18h) TF: If you were wondering WHY I said lets wait till we progress further in the 1080m TF and WHY I did not have much concern, the answer is when looking at the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI (ALONG WITH PHOENIX 1.393 INFORMATION).

The Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI WERE STILL HEADING UPSIDE "WHILE" The Green Line and RSX (Relative Strength Index) were heading downside. Which was sending a VERY mixed signal. THAT ALSO lead me to believe they would BOTH OFFSET EACH OTHER and would therefore equate to sideways action; AT LEAST UNTIL the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI made it up to the 100% level.

Comment: LOOK at the two magenta rectangles I drew in Phoenix 1.393 in the 720m (12h) TF to see another EXAMPLE of what I mean by the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI both going upside WHILE the Green Line was heading down. Now (using the aqua blue vertical time line that aligns with the price action above), you'll see (when looking at the EVENT IN THE PAST - to the far left) we had very little movement down. It was more sideways with a slight downward move.

Since I'm currently doing work in my mining room AND doing business taxes, I'M "NOT" day trading on the 4h or 2h TF's. I'm simply using much higher TF's to look for MAJOR movement in the market that would justify me implementing a buy or sell action. That's what has been the purpose of these publications - More or less mid to long term TA; "NOT" short to very short term for day traders.

Comment: When I said, "the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI both going upside WHILE the Green Line was heading down." I"M REFERRING TO THE "GREEN" LINE INSIDE PHOENIX 1.393 WHILE looking at the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI "merged" indicators BELOW Phoenix 1.393.
Comment: The example I pointed out in the past was not as good of an example as where we are located currently. However, it was the best one I could find that was relatively close to our current location DURING A BULL TREND.

Our current location showed TREMENDOUS upside trend in Phoenix ARI continuing upside while the green line (In Phoenix 1.393) was coming downside. When I see mixed signals like this IN A BULL TREND, I equate that to SIDEWAYS ACTION.
Comment: 2-Day Longer Term TF:

Comment: I want you to fast forward to the 26 minute 15 second mark in this video and listen to this guy's explanation of what could potentially play out with Bitcoin and other asset markets. I thought he gave a good explanation. Check it out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RcFi-rJkpc
Comment: 1440m (Daily) TF:

Comment: 2-Day TF:

Comment: 4-Day TF:

Comment: Pardon me not spreading out the 4-Day and 2-Day TF's charts for you to see the price action more. The main thing I want everyone to focus on is the indicators.
Comment: 720m TF: Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI both look like it may come down a bit.



360m TF: Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI both look like it may come down a bit. I drew a black line with an arrow to show POSSIBLE "future" price action.

Comment: If you have not seen this interview yet on X22 Report Spotlight, you need to. It's DEFINITELY worth your time in my opinion. Don't forget to give it a thumbs up and subscribe.

"The Economy Is Failing, Cryptocurrencies Are A Threat To The Central Banking System:Jeff Berwick" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-Vormmz_MA
Comment: Update with the 180m (3h) TF:
Comment: 720m (12h) TF:



720m (12h) TF WITH FIB's:

$10,187.50 very possible:

Comment: Still looks like downward pressure is dominant for at least another 6 hours. We could easily go down to $9,300. Not certain of that though. Simply pointing out a lower low than current low is possible giving the amount of downward pressure remaining.

360m TF "BEFORE" NEW CANDLE:



360m TF "AFTER" NEW CANDLE:

Comment: I've also learned something from this to create a NEW RULE I'll share later.
Comment: Those of you thinking of going margin long on ALT/BTC pairs NEED TO BE CAREFUL.

This may be a trap for those who are thinking of going "margin" long on those particular pairs. If you do, you are subject to get liquidated.

This also means BTCUSD would have to go up in order for this to occur BUT not necessarily. They can still dump those ALT/BTC pairs and liquidate margin long positions.

WHY would the Composite Group make this move? It's their way of ACCUMULATING more BTC when they dump those ALT/BTC pairs for more BTC.
Comment: I'm referring to ALT's that are ALSO TRADED IN USD.
Comment: Not referring to ALT's that are traded in BTC only.
Comment: From the look of all three of the following charts, we are currently at a crossroad to determine whether we go up or down. I believe more sideways action within a tight trading range for now.

18h (1080m) TF:



12h (720m) TF - :



6h (360m) TF:

Comment: This chart IS FOR MY OWN REFERENCE to look back upon in the event of being in a similar situation in the future. I want to see if what I posted in the blue text bubble holds true.

Comment: Added one more note again for my own future reference in the event a similar situation arrises.

Comment: 720m (12h) TF:

Comment: Followers, this video is worth your time listening to in my opinion and subscribing to. Have a look, please: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XA8weqe5NlI&feature=em-uploademail
Comment: I accidentally time stamped it. You will need to rewind it.
Comment: IGNORE THE TEXT BUBBLES IN THIS POST...

I'm simply making this post to point out we are currently at my 0.618 FIB Re-Trace. This means my previous post about reaching that FIB "MIGHT" come to fruition with the price coming down to or near the lower red line of the larger wedge drawn in red. Will post another chart soon.

Comment: It's NOT a guarantee we come down to or near that lower red line on the larger wedge. We'll find out more shortly.
Comment:
Comment: I just had a comment below stating the following:

"lot of spam bra! last 10 posts in the idea stream, have to unfollow!"

That's certainly fine by me. I'm not posting for people to be along simply for "the ride." I make posts for people to learn. I know personally that many who follow me probably wish I would update more and on more pairs.

So, if you have a problem with the number of posts I make, you need to unfollow NOW. It will not hurt my feelings in the least.

Happy Trading!

David
Comment: That lower blue line of the blue wedge is still TRYING to hold on. Here's a close up with NO indicators in the 360m TF:



With Indicators - 360m TF:

Comment: I corrected that first lower blue wedge line and added one more to show the "last chance." If we go below the lowest blue line wedge drawn, the RED 0.618 FIB is likely.

Comment: Apologies for so many posts to scroll down through. I will start a new publication soon.

I wanted followers to COMPARE the chart below with this Schematic Image - https://i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png

Comment: I've found - When comparing Wyckoff Accumulation Schematics to crypto currency pairs AFTER a major consolidation event - the highs of the Automatic Rallies in Phase A are hardly ever near the same level as the highs of automatic rallies in phase B. So, do NOT assume Phase A "highs" on crypto currency charts MUST look the same or similar to that which is seen in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. That schematic is ONLY an example and by no means implies the price action MUST play out EXACTLY as depicted in the Schematic.

Wyckoff Schematics MAINLY referred to stocks NOT crypto. Stocks hardly EVER drop down the percentages crypto does in such a short time span. Nor do they hardly EVER pump up the percentages crypto does in such a short time span. This is the main reason the HIGH of an Automatic Rally in Phase A is hardly ever up to the height of the highs in Phase B of an Accumulation Schematic.
Comment: Also keep in mind I "know" I have members of Composite Groups who frequent my posts in publications. I'm NOT saying that to be arrogant or to act like I'm "somebody of note." Cause I'm not... I simply "know" because two of them are following me. Also, I'm NOT going to say their user name.

I'm simply pointing this out to say this information could be used to your disadvantage if you're not careful. Meaning, it's STILL possible they take this down to the 0.618 FIB at $8,123.82 before they begin a SPRING with A TEST.

Remember, as I posted in the note in the chart above, a SPRING is a price move BELOW the support level of the Trading Range (TR) established in phases A and B that quickly reverses and moves back into the TR. It is an example of a bear trap because the drop BELOW support APPEARS to signal resumption of the downtrend. IN REALITY, THOUGH, this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers, or bears. In Wyckoff's method, a SUCCESSFUL test of supply represented by a spring (or a shakeout) provides a high-probability trading opportunity.

IMPORTANT: A low-volume spring (or a low-volume test of a shakeout) indicates that the stock is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate at least a partial long position. The key is checking the volume in our current location compared to previous downward price movements.
Comment: NOTE: how I had the Red Horizontal Ray marking the Upper part of the trading range (TR) and the Black Horizontal Ray marking the SUPPORT part of the trading range (TR). We have just now went below the support line of the trading range.
Comment: The BLACK SUPPORT LINE of the TR at $9022.82 and the RED RESISTANCE LINE of the TR at $11,780.
Comment: Update for progress:

Comment: Simply pointing out ANOTHER POSSIBILITY which would also require me to edit the TRADING RANGE (TR):

Comment: One last post for at least the next 12 hours. This post is to point out the reason why I'm leaning on the side of the BLACK Schematic in the Green Text Bubble:

Comment: Someone asked a good question in the comments section below. The question is the following:

Reading from your recommended Wyckoff link, would you agree that if we do not get back to the trading range soon (1-2 days?) we may be in phase D of distribution schematic #1? http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

My Reply:

IF it goes lower BUT NOT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS LOW AT $5,920.72 on BitStamp, THEN my SECOND OPTION with BLUE TEXT BUBBLES will be the PROPER INDICATION of our current location within the Accumulation Schematic. Which would also force me to EDIT the Trading Range (TR).

If it goes lower than $5,920.72, then yes, we have a SOW (Sign of Weakness) and Wyckoff Distribution Schematic is in play.

My thoughts are the following: We have many more ADOPTERS who have come to the space and the number of adopters increases daily. Those adopters bring "capital" with them which increases "liquidity" in the space to absorb "supply" and therefore increase "demand." So, I'm leaning more towards us currently being in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. I'm simply waiting for confirmation as to where we are located within the schematic. Is it the Blue text bubbles or the Black text bubbles? That's the confirmation I'm waiting on.
Comment: The statements you're about to read below is simply me THINKING OUT LOUD (brain storming):

Also, it COULD simply be the TRUSTE of the Mt. Gox Bitcoins is simply applying a LOT of downward pressure with his selloff ALONG WITH selloff of other big players in the space to shakeout weak hands.

Keep in mind, WHILE they are dumping bitcoin for US dollars, they are ALSO DUMPING ALT COINS FOR BITCOIN.

What importance is this realization? THEY ARE ACCUMULATING BITCOIN with the Alt-Coins they are dumping for bitcoin. This could simply be a means of DISTRIBUTION WHILE ACCUMULATING.

What are they "accumulating?" FIAT (USD, EUR, JPY, etc...)

Why would they want or need FIAT?

To have FIAT for a future date to pump up the alts again that are also traded in FIAT. Such as XMR, ETH, ETC, ZEC, STR, XRP, REP, DASH, etc... Poloniex also trades those coins in FIAT.
Comment: Simply showing POSSIBLE "near future" flow of price action and movement of lines in indicators in the 720m (12h) TF:

Comment: THIS IS "NOT" SAYING THIS IS HOW IT WILL PLAY OUT. I'M SIMPLY POINTING OUT ONE OF "MANY" SCENARIOS THAT "COULD" PLAY OUT. Which is another reason WHY I also like using indicators to TRY to get an idea of HOW it will play out.

Comment: "Mt. Gox Trustee's Bitcoin Rigging Operation EXPOSED!!"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqdCVle7zD4
Comment: I've placed WHITE Text Bubbles on the chart to reveal remaining events before confirming a "Leg Up" episode; providing our analysis is correct when comparing to this image of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1: https://i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png

Comment: It's VERY POSSIBLE we hang out to the side for a while BEFORE actually fulfilling the EVENTS show with WHITE text bubbles. If it did this (which I've seen before) it would be a mixture of Accumulation Schematic #1 and #2.
Comment:
Comment: I would have thought we might have gone up to $10,000 before a TEST of support. Of course, it's still possible.
Comment: In the 360m (6h) TF this is looking like our TEST for support WHILE TESTING SUPPLY before a chance of progressing towards the higher levels of our Trading Range (TR):

Comment: I like what I'm seeing in regards to the volume. This is very good evidence (with the low volume) this is a TEST OF SUPPORT and has very little (if any) to do with SUPPLY dumping us down more. Very good sign thus far.
Comment: THE TEST IS "NOT" HERE YET.

WE ARE STILL IN OUR DOWNWARD MOVE ON THE DAILY (1440m) TF:

$8,120 (0.618 FIB) IS STILL IN PLAY:

Comment: Still hard to say at the moment if this is our TEST or not when looking at this 360m TF. We'll simply have to wait for it to play out and see.

Comment: The volume is still quite low compared to previous drop. This may very well be our TEST. Patiently waiting...

Comment: 6h (360m) TF WITH INDICATORS UPDATE of "POSSIBLE" future price action events:

Are the fib levels on your charts set wrong? I thought the 0 should be set to the low and the 1 set to the high?
Reply
ProwdClown CryptoKnut
@CryptoKnut,

When there is a retrace DOWN the 0.0% should be at the HIGH and the 1.0% coordinate should be at the LOW to find the 0.618% re-trace

When there is a retrace UPWARD the 0.0% should be at the LOW and the 1.0% coordinate should be at the HIGH to find the 1.618% new ATH.
Reply
ProwdClown CryptoKnut
@CryptoKnut,

Which is also another reason WHY you see the option in a small little box to REVERSE the direction of the FIB inside the INPUT settings.
Reply
ProwdClown CryptoKnut
@CryptoKnut,

If you go to STYLE you will see the option to REVERSE.
Reply
CryptoKnut ProwdClown
@ProwdClown, ah alright thanks for the explanation! also thanks for all the handwork you put into this.
Reply
ProwdClown CryptoKnut
@CryptoKnut,

Sure, you're welcome. However, I haven't put in a lot of hard work like I used to. I've been tied up lately with taxes and remodel of my mining room. As well as working on my dad's mining room and a friend of mine in Nashville with his new mining room.

I'll be back to full time and more posting in about another 4 to 5 weeks.
Reply
Hello, thanks for a very interesting analysis! I'm new to Wyckoff, but it seems to make a lot of sense, the way you align it with the price action.

Key question: you seem to indicate that spring is only valid (as an uptrend predictor) if it occurs on lower volume than previous sell offs. If I understood this part correct, than it does not look good, especially for GDAX data, where volume was even higher than 6k dip.
Reply
@Asterix,

Thanks for the reply and respectful comment.

As to your "Key question," the "volume" is the ONLY concern I've had on this CURRENT dip. The only thing of significance to attribute to the volume being higher than the previous large dip at 6k is the Mt. Gox sell off from that guy in Japan.

Also, the current high volume also prompted me to take another look at the schematic and prompted me to point out the POSSIBILITY of where we actually are in the schematic by posting the BLUE text bubbles. Which would also force me to change the coordinates of the "Current Trading Range."
Reply
@Asterix,

In case you were not aware:

We have NORMALLY had MAJOR consolidation events in the following ranges:

End of December to Beginning of January
End of May to Beginning of June

THOSE TWO TIME RANGES ABOVE ARE NORMALLY PRECLUDED WITH AT LEAST TRIPLE MARK-UP FROM THE "LOW" UP TO THE NEW ATH BEFORE ITS MAJOR CONSOLIDATION EVENT.

The chart below is an OLD CHART from another OLD publication:

+1 Reply
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