Same chart I published 40 days ago, same downtrends still holding (I keep thinking I'll have to tweak the trend range). LTC repeatedly testing the top of the trend and dropping back in; this is not a hopeful sign. BTC will continue to drag it down to the pre-boom average line. First LTC bounce target still at $132 at month end. BTC trend intersection is out another 30 days, however, setting up LTC for dramatic fall.
Scenario 1: BTC fall accelerates to meet the pre-boom average at $5636 by April 1st, and LTC hits optimistic trend intersection
Scenario 2: BTC meets the line on April 17th at $5900 and LTC hits the pessimistic trend intersection at the same time
Scenario 3: BTC decline draws out until the end of next month, and we see LTC crash through the pessimistic trend line down to $57.
At each of these points, we still have to consider the very real (and likely) possibility that this is a classic bubble and we can dip well below the mean before a return.
I'm betting on scenario 2 right now, with some further decline and bounce. We'll know in a few days if #1 plays out; it's unlikely LTC can keep above the line within that time frame if BTC falls 20%. I doubt the market has the patience to hold a slow decline for another month to reach #3, but it's not unfathomable. $57 may seem low, but don't forget context: LTC is still 2.5x the October 2017 price, 7x the June 2017 price, and 35x the March 2017 price exactly 1 year ago. LTC is not the big-dog, it doesn't have smart-contracts to create added value, and BTC has made a lot of headway in lowering the massive transaction fees that made LTC so attractive. Competition is heavy in the new game, and LTC is not immune to further massive decline.
BTC is the bellwether and the anchor. The longer it takes to return to mean, the more decline we'll see in alts.
Scenario 1: BTC fall accelerates to meet the pre-boom average at $5636 by April 1st, and LTC hits optimistic trend intersection
Scenario 2: BTC meets the line on April 17th at $5900 and LTC hits the pessimistic trend intersection at the same time
Scenario 3: BTC decline draws out until the end of next month, and we see LTC crash through the pessimistic trend line down to $57.
At each of these points, we still have to consider the very real (and likely) possibility that this is a classic bubble and we can dip well below the mean before a return.
I'm betting on scenario 2 right now, with some further decline and bounce. We'll know in a few days if #1 plays out; it's unlikely LTC can keep above the line within that time frame if BTC falls 20%. I doubt the market has the patience to hold a slow decline for another month to reach #3, but it's not unfathomable. $57 may seem low, but don't forget context: LTC is still 2.5x the October 2017 price, 7x the June 2017 price, and 35x the March 2017 price exactly 1 year ago. LTC is not the big-dog, it doesn't have smart-contracts to create added value, and BTC has made a lot of headway in lowering the massive transaction fees that made LTC so attractive. Competition is heavy in the new game, and LTC is not immune to further massive decline.
BTC is the bellwether and the anchor. The longer it takes to return to mean, the more decline we'll see in alts.
