I posted another idea which is quite different than this one, however I'm curious what you all think about this. This is BTC on the 5 day and it looks similar to Feb 5th 2020 to me. If you look at the dates I am simply using dates from back then to calculate dates forward and of course if this were to unfortunately come true we would need to adjust the days to our current cycle which I'm not very good at to be quite honest. Good Luck to you all.
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This idea is pretty simple. BTC should start to decline near Sept 8th and continue to decline until Oct 3rd. If BTC doesn't start declining by say the middle of Sept I would say this idea is invalidated. Let's see
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I think there may a drop down to the 48k area at some point and then back up to the 50k area again. I think there will be a blow off top from some alts during this time. I will be taking gains when BTC gets back to 50k area before it may start its decent for a few weeks ... if BTC continues down to 46.5k area and then back up however it will change my mind (how I trade) and I will likely see this as a bullish sign that it will go up from there. We are on count #9 on the 5 day which is when things get volatile so it will be an interesting ride the next few days. Will we get a "point" in the OBV (5 day) much like we did in early Feb. 2020? If so will this give us a clue as to what's to come or is BTC just getting ready to start another climb? Lets's see as usual. What are your thoughts? I appreciate the comments.
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Well my idea a few hours ago was invalidated rather quickly. As the saying goes ...less is more. Here is my current thought. It may take 2-3 days to get down to the target. Let's see.Good luck to you all
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Does anyone see the problem with BTC going up? Look at my blue arrows over the volume.
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I believe we will have a dip, rip, and the beginning of a dump within the next 10 days if this idea stands to be true. As I mentioned above there will be a discount on some ALTS on the first dip and then a blow off top more than likely before the dump. If you play this well you could fill your bags and then buy some discounts later in say a month or so. Let's see
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Here is a link to my other idea to give you an idea on what I think will be the dip, rip, and beginning of the dump. Keep in mind I do not know when the dump will end, nor do I know when the bottom will play out. It seems these two ideas are now converging to me.
I give it 1-2 days from now to reach the target. Let's see
I give it 1-2 days from now to reach the target. Let's see
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And there is the dip...wow 43k...didn't see that coming. I think it will come all the way back to 52k and some ALTS will have a blow off top but we should always be watching BTC for another potential drop. Let's see
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And there is the dip...wow 43k...didn't see that coming. I think it will come all the way back to 52k and some ALTS will have a blow off top but we should always be watching BTC for another potential drop. Please take note of the point that just occurred (purple arrows pointing to it) on the 5 day OBV. Very interesting don't you think? Let's see
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Maybe something like this...let's see
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Here is a bit of a messy chart on the 4 hour...can BTC make it back up to 50k by tomorrow or will we keep going down? I think the next strong impulse down may be around 40k. I also see a possibility of a blow off top to 57k now. I will be checking out then if it does make it up that far. I am focusing in on the 4 hr since its been pretty reliable lately for a reverse, wondering if it will cross up later today by chance. Good luck
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Here are my current thoughts...green box is area of interest for me. I am thinking most likely down after that area but let's see.
To address a previous message of dip, rip, and drop. We saw a dip (more than I expected as noted) but will we see a rip? It probably won't happen until we drop more, maybe down to the 40k area. I am still planning to take some profit on ALTS but will we see a blow off top? Maybe that was trying to predict too much. Good luck to you all
To address a previous message of dip, rip, and drop. We saw a dip (more than I expected as noted) but will we see a rip? It probably won't happen until we drop more, maybe down to the 40k area. I am still planning to take some profit on ALTS but will we see a blow off top? Maybe that was trying to predict too much. Good luck to you all
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Here is a cleaner looking chart similar to the one above...
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The first chart below is BTC on the 30 min...the second is on the 4 hour
I would like to explain the 4 hour chart a bit as you can see I have a diamond pattern drawn which is new. We will see as time progresses how this plays out but I will say that it fits nicely into the timeframe I had charted for BTC to top out at around 50.4k and start its decent. If BTC decides to run up, the top from the diamond pattern would be right around 58k (very near my previous projection). If BTC follows the typical pattern down it would drop to around 36.5k. Now the reason I have the orange curve is because this is what BTC did the last time I had a larger diamond pattern drawn so something I will be watchful of. Lastly diamond patterns can develop into descending channels, which could land BTC at 18.k in a few weeks or so which is what this original post was trying to predict. Let's see as usual. I am in a favorite ALT and I do expect for there to be a blow off top as BTC nears 50k. I cannot be certain of this of course and its just speculation.
I would like to explain the 4 hour chart a bit as you can see I have a diamond pattern drawn which is new. We will see as time progresses how this plays out but I will say that it fits nicely into the timeframe I had charted for BTC to top out at around 50.4k and start its decent. If BTC decides to run up, the top from the diamond pattern would be right around 58k (very near my previous projection). If BTC follows the typical pattern down it would drop to around 36.5k. Now the reason I have the orange curve is because this is what BTC did the last time I had a larger diamond pattern drawn so something I will be watchful of. Lastly diamond patterns can develop into descending channels, which could land BTC at 18.k in a few weeks or so which is what this original post was trying to predict. Let's see as usual. I am in a favorite ALT and I do expect for there to be a blow off top as BTC nears 50k. I cannot be certain of this of course and its just speculation.
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This scenario may play out ...
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Here is how I am playing it...maybe it doesn't go that low but it will likely wick down a bit IMO
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IMO BTC is finding bottom now but let's see...
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I am turning bearish so no bounce before the fall IMO. I thought BTC had something left in the tank and that we may see some high volume to turn things around, but it appears that is not the case. Lets see
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I said no bounce but to be clear I meant not from where it is at right now (unless a lot of volume comes in very soon). I think we will see some sort of bounce before dropping lower. Here is an idea. A few people have commented that they think a bounce may occur around 40k and that very well may happen. I wanted to share a rule I have with myself that you may find helpful. I do not hold overnight (USA). More bad things than good things happen during the night. I buy back early in the morning if the market is favorable. Do you have such rules that you follow? This rule has served me well the last few weeks. Good luck to you all.
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Will we see the volume to turn it around? Let's see. Idea still holds
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Well thank goodness for my rule to sell at night because I about became frog soup. Here is where I think it is going next. It will be very interesting what happens there because the 5 day OBV may turn red at that point which would would be strikingly similar to what we saw last October as this original idea suggests.
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My current thought...maybe no bounce but I'm thinking there will be at this point. Good luck to you all
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With the volatility we just experienced I am leaning back towards this now.
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The longer this plays out it seems to me that BTC may drop further than 41-42k. Here is my thought
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I updated the targets slightly...this would be a repeat of a previous drop from the top. There are a lot of similarities. Timing wise this would mean the big drop is coming tomorrow
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Interesting move by BTC ...here is an idea worth considering. Thoughts?
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If patterns repeat...something to watch for anyhow
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Target approaching...let's see
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Is this the fall? Probably not as it usually bounces up one more time and then it falls but maybe BTC will surprise us this time...who knows. I'm going to post the 6 hour chart so you can see how it is progressing and then I'll post the 5 day chart below and make some comments. It's possible I won't be updating for a few days. Good luck to you.
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BTC (5 day) is still printing a progression downward and it looks like the MACD is going to cross down in the next week or so to me. The question is how far down will it go? The 6 hour chart I have posted suggests 40.5k. I will be looking at the OBV for clues. If the OBV turns red, I will probably lean towards 18-19k and when we get there I have no idea. Could be quick or slow. Let's see
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Well BTC didn't make it as high as I thought but its following the path. It looks like a waterfall may come within the next few days or even possibly the next 24 hours. Down to 41k area (wick may be lower). Then what? I am not sure but there will be a bounce there. It's time to get into position for cheap ALTS IMO. Good luck to you all.
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Maybe a bit further down than 41k but let's see.
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I'm changing my estimate back north of 40k. Let's see ...
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BTC moving up to 46.5k area IMO ...let's see of course
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Well not a falling wedge as it turns out but it did stay above 40k as I had thought.
Up to 43.1k area and then down? Probably but let's see. I have drawn some scenarios to be prepared for. Good luck
Up to 43.1k area and then down? Probably but let's see. I have drawn some scenarios to be prepared for. Good luck
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ok BTC ...new plan. Back to 43.1k and up to target, then down IMO but let's see. Maybe it will break up and through?
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another option where BTC doesn't fall as much with tighter lines essentially
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I am turning very bearish at the moment...I mean 18-19k bearish. This looks like a dead cat bounce to me. If we get down to 40.3k again I don't think it will hold and then waterfall as someone in this post mentioned. I like to play the bounces and make a few bucks and I will keep an eye on opportunities. This is why you see me posting by the 6 hour and such because why not accumulate some dough?
The MACD is getting ready to cross on the 5 day. All it would take is another drop down to 40k and then down hard if it doesn't hold.
I am also going to post the 2 day which also shows bearish pretty clearly. To be clear if 40k can hold we can go up but that is coming under threat IMO. Let's see.
The MACD is getting ready to cross on the 5 day. All it would take is another drop down to 40k and then down hard if it doesn't hold.
I am also going to post the 2 day which also shows bearish pretty clearly. To be clear if 40k can hold we can go up but that is coming under threat IMO. Let's see.
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Here is the 2 day ...the green box represent the 18-19k scenario and the blue box represents the 40k (holds) scenario. Let's keep an eye on it.
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Here is my most up to date idea on BTC on the 6 hour if 40k can hold. We shall see in the next week for sure
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I'm going to make a prediction ...not always the best idea but I don't care to look like a fool if I'm wrong. I think BTC will tell us which way it is going on Sept. 27th. Whether it's a big drop down or a recovery and time to take a long position. I am not just getting this date from the chart below. I am taking into account the 2 and 5 day as well. Let's see. I probably won't be updating unless things change dramatically.
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I'm going to make a prediction ...not always the best idea but I don't care to look like a fool if I'm wrong. I think BTC will tell us which way it is going on Sept. 27th. Whether it's a big drop down or a recovery and time to take a long position. I am not just getting this date from the drawing. I am taking into account the 2 and 5 day as well. Let's see. I probably won't be updating unless things change dramatically.
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Here is a 2 hr view...to be clear I don't know what BTC is going to do (nor does anyone else) but a decision will be made before the month is out IMO. Another thought to share...if we start going sideways the bulls are holding the 40k area (5 day EMA 50) and we will go up. This will flatten out all the indicators kind of like a landing a plane softly on the runway and then BTC can take off again when it's ready. We can be pretty confident of this IMO based on history.
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45k resistance held...interesting. Will the bulls be able to defend the 40k area? Let's see. I'm still looking at Sept. 27th as a key date to give us insight as to the direction of BTC whether up or down (unless 40k area doesn't hold before then of course but BTC may go up and down wildly in the next few days)
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Notice the OBV on the 2 day and how its coming up...very interesting
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Could this be a slow bleeder like last time? See the yellow box. This would invalidate my Sept 27th idea. Such is trading...BTC may bore us again until finally an up. Let's see
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So far the bulls are defending 40k area ...rejected 4 times now. Let's see
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or ...will it be this
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I think we are going up for a bit now... let's see
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nope :) ugh I need to take a break...the previous idea seems to be the route
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Will the 40k area hold for the 5th time? Maybe not, but if it does, here is an idea ...whatever the case, this may be a boring October. Let's see
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here is another idea based on a cup and handle (slanted downward is bullish) ..target is 76k...notice a little more down in the next week before starting up. Let's see
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A zoomed in look on the 6 hour again ...what do you think?
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Is BTC about to rocket up 18%? There are some very interesting similarities to Jan 27th 2021. Take a look.
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Again this could be invalidate rather quickly but it is interesting...Here is the big picture assuming the end of Dec is the peak which is pretty cliche but its an idea anyhow...time will unravel the path
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Volume is coming...12-13% up IMO. Just need to break through resistance. Let's see
Trade closed manually:
I believe BTC is now in a bullish cup and handle and I have this idea posted at the following URL ->
This idea I believe has now been invalidated as the selling volume has dried up and BTC is starting a new pattern sideways and then up. I will be updating my other idea on a regular basis.
Thank you all for following this idea. It was based on the worst case scenario. BTC did drop as I thought but is now accumulating for a rise IMO. Of course its BTC and anything can happen. Take care
This idea I believe has now been invalidated as the selling volume has dried up and BTC is starting a new pattern sideways and then up. I will be updating my other idea on a regular basis.
Thank you all for following this idea. It was based on the worst case scenario. BTC did drop as I thought but is now accumulating for a rise IMO. Of course its BTC and anything can happen. Take care