ecoinamist
Long

BTCUSD | Bullish or Bearish?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
When did it become cool to be bearish?
I have remained bullish on Bitcoin (and altcoins) throughout these massive swings.
Though massive it is, we have a classic bull flag playing out (big run up, and then parallel channel travel straight, or downward)
I understand that these big swings are scary, but it's important to remain calm and look at the bigger picture.
Fundamentally, and technically, I see very little reason to be bearish on bitcoin right now.

"But Ecoinamist, CME Futures contracts expire tomorrow!"
Well, that's in about 12 hours from time of posting this. I believe we would have already started to see the dumping.

Regardless, my sentiment does not determine market sentiment.
So I have a plan for either scenario (as good traders should).

Bullish:
I really like the idea of using this resistance at the pink line to indicate bullish movement.
Breaking this resistance could mean a run back up to top of channel (~$15,000)
If this happens I will probably begin to enter some coins that have had some nice corrections already.
Alts have been trending with Bitcoin lately, rather than inversely trending. I will trade according to this.
I believe this outcome could lead to a nice little altcoin party.

Bearish:
Bearish movement to me will be indicated by breaking the pink line support.
Even then, I still think we'd bounce bottom of channel.
However, bottom of channel is below $10k, which is where people seem to freak out the most. It's actually mid $8k down there.
That would probably lead to some pretty big corrections on our favorite alts.
So a support break would cause me to start exiting my more pumped positions (not 100%)

Either scenario should play out within a couple days.
Hope this helps some of you traders! As always, feel free to ask questions and give any feedback you see fit.
Trade active: That does not look natural. Big red dump at key resistance point smells like whale manipulation.

Anyways, I wouldn't panic just yet. Support line was tested and has held up so far.
I actually went long (10.4k) on Bitcoin with some modest leverage and a stop loss ($9.8k).
Comment: Beautiful support bounce to catch the dip. We're well on our way to test resistance once again.
#TAdoesntWork

My leveraged long is looking pretty here, still holding my position.
Going to take some profits near resistance, but hoping to hold my long to top of channel.

Trade active: And we broke resistance!
I fully expect us to travel back to the top of our channel here (around $14,500)
Watch for a retest of support, or support break for a change in trajectory.

I will be starting a new long here ~$11,450
With a stop loss of $10,950

Comments

Hello @ecoinamist ! Thank you for sharing your analysis)) What do you think about this analysis? Could you please to make some comments on this TA? Thank you! :)
+1 Reply
@kwarty,
I like your resistance and support lines, haha. I'm honestly not knowledgeable enough in wave theory to be able to comment on the projections, but the price action seems to correlate with the way in which I use my parallel / FIB channels. A rejection from the top of my channel could mean a return to bottom, and break through the channel means a leg up.
Great stuff!
+1 Reply
Nice chart. touch support.
+1 Reply
ecoinamist tuanrad
@tuanrad, Beautiful support touch, huh?
Reply
tuanrad ecoinamist
@ecoinamist, yes.
very exactly support!
Reply
This gonna be fun.
+1 Reply
ecoinamist Omnixau
@Omnixau,
One thing I've learned is that crypto is rarely boring.
Reply
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