Downtrend from November 2021 to April 2022 not violated by August bear market rally.
As the DXY continues to strengthen, a pause after a Sept. hike to appear "independent" during elections
seems most plausible followed by a continuation of hiking in later Q4 or 2023.
November seems poised to be a critical inflection point, where we could see an 80% parabolic retrace
hitting at 13.4K, with a good probability of a quick hammer to lower levels. From there we could start
the slow grind through the downtrend line and find ourselves in a great accumulation "suckers rally"
phase by December.
As the DXY continues to strengthen, a pause after a Sept. hike to appear "independent" during elections
seems most plausible followed by a continuation of hiking in later Q4 or 2023.
November seems poised to be a critical inflection point, where we could see an 80% parabolic retrace
hitting at 13.4K, with a good probability of a quick hammer to lower levels. From there we could start
the slow grind through the downtrend line and find ourselves in a great accumulation "suckers rally"
phase by December.
Comment:
After briefly touching the upper trend line on Sept 12th, the CPI numbers released continued to reduce confidence in both equities and crypto markets, where we saw large scale selloffs throughout Tuesday. With the FED interest rate decision coming next week, we can expect a minimum 75 basis point increase, but with a CPI more in line with July, a full percentage point seems to me the more likely route.
Comment:
It appears we could be now breaking out of the downward trend.
Volume has been relatively low and CCI is still near the bottom of the channel.
Watching to see if it confirms over the week.
Volume has been relatively low and CCI is still near the bottom of the channel.
Watching to see if it confirms over the week.