ronfkingswanson
Long

Pivotal zone at $590 shows support forming bullish pennant

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
651 6 10


For me, the most dominant movement affecting priced action for the past two months was the non-stop rally from 440-680 that went from may into june. We've had pullbacks, retracements, etc - but overall that movement has managed to consolidate itself above the 0.382 fib, which is inherently bullish . The first deep selloff reached 0.618, but further tests of support bounced of the crucial 50% and have now fallen onto the confluence of the daily ichimoku cloud , 200MA, and this 0.382 fib. If we rise from here, that same 200MA should provide support with the cloud and the lower pennant floor all the way to a bullish breakout.

Just a few days ago, we were in a very tightly squeezed sideways slide that was causing many to draw comparisons with the squeeze in mid-may (with most indicators dead-neutral). We broke down from that level, which has some calling for a deeper bear slide here. But I noticed, when checking my preferred indicators against that pre-440-rally period that *now*, we're actually in an identical position across RSI , VZO, Willy, and RMI to the last slump on May 6th before the 440 rally.

This $590 zone is being well-defended, and if it can hold, it will confirm this pennant formation, as well as set us up for a bullish exit in maybe two weeks or so. Clearly any solid move below $590 at this point will invalidate this analysis, and send is into the cloud for much more bearish forecast to $560 and beyond
venzen
2 years ago
Hi Ron, i've been thinking along the same lines as your analysis here, and agree with your conclusion that we are only now seeing the paralels with price action in the latter half of May. And $590, yes, well defended and the orderbook has swung round from a top heavy Ask dominated book to a scenario where Buys continually come into the market at $590 and below - providing some solid support at this level. The sideways penant seems the most likely shape of things to come.
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ChartArt venzen
2 years ago
Is there something wrong about this version of the chart showing that we are that the beginning of a downtrend? I usually don't draw lines, because they are so unreliable. But here is another way how you could read this:

snapshot
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TerryKinder PRO ChartArt
2 years ago
I agree with your chart here, and drew something similar, only using the tops of the wicks rather than closer to the solid part of the candle. Not realy sure why some have been so optimistic about the Bitcoin price going up. Right now the technical indicators all look pretty bad, although a few are beginning to look just a little bit better - but not good enough to go long based on them.
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ChartArt
2 years ago
According to some technical traders those trend lines don't count as a trend, because they don't connect three points with each other, which is the minimum for a defined trend. A confirmation must appear on three candles. An unconfirmed pattern has no further meaning.

I personally think it's ok to work with only two points to discover price trends, but it also increases the risk that the overall assumption is wrong.

snapshot
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TerryKinder PRO ChartArt
2 years ago
I have always read that you need at least two touches - for example, on a triangle, two touches on the high side and two on the low side. The more touches, the more likely to be accurate the chart.
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well the top of the cloud has clearly been breached, now we bounce around inside. Lots of people expecting 550 landing zone, and my cloud bottom and 50% fib would agree. We could have a minor bounce here to 600 or so before that landing, or we could just slump the whole way
snapshot
+1 Reply
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