For me, the most dominant movement affecting priced action for the past two months was the non-stop rally from 440-680 that went from may into june. We've had pullbacks, retracements, etc - but overall that movement has managed to consolidate itself above the 0.382 fib, which is inherently . The first deep selloff reached 0.618, but further tests of support bounced of the crucial 50% and have now fallen onto the confluence of the daily , 200MA, and this 0.382 fib. If we rise from here, that same 200MA should provide support with the cloud and the lower floor all the way to a breakout.
Just a few days ago, we were in a very tightly squeezed sideways slide that was causing many to draw comparisons with the squeeze in mid-may (with most indicators dead-neutral). We broke down from that level, which has some calling for a deeper slide here. But I noticed, when checking my preferred indicators against that pre-440-rally period that *now*, we're actually in an identical position across , VZO, Willy, and RMI to the last slump on May 6th before the 440 rally.
This $590 zone is being well-defended, and if it can hold, it will confirm this formation, as well as set us up for a exit in maybe two weeks or so. Clearly any solid move below $590 at this point will invalidate this analysis, and send is into the cloud for much more forecast to $560 and beyond
I personally think it's ok to work with only two points to discover price trends, but it also increases the risk that the overall assumption is wrong.