norok
Short

Finally an opportunity

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
With this move up after a long period of nothing I am making a call for price action...

Projection
What I expect is a pullback to $600 through 9/15.

Now that price has popped up quickly it is still not a sign of long term bullishness. In fact, the move was too sharp to be indicative of a real sustained trend to turn the Daily into bullish territory. Price is still below the cloud and fighting it due to this move.

Interestingly enough, 9/15 falls on a Thursday before the "Bullish Friday" statistic. At that point I expect it to battle where the 26 period Kijun Sen will be at the nice round number of $600. That will be our Daily support. Depending on if price holds it or breaks it will be the cadence for the next several weeks. If it breaks it I expect price will also break the lows and start moving down to sub-$500. If it holds then there is a chance to consolidate bullishly and maybe return price to the upside.

Bitfinex versus Bitstamp
Unfortunately for the next several weeks the Daily charts of BFX and BStamp will be different. The weekly will not match for perhaps 6 months. I have to pick one so I'm going to be referring to BFX charts for two reasons. 1) Traders can open short margin positions there and 2) still drives much of the volume of BTCUSD             trading.
Trade active: Taking some profit here. Leaving half on for longer term test of lows.
Hi Norok. What if the price breaks into the cloud? Would that change your mind on the bearish scenario? I saw a clear 61.8% FIB retrace on the daily and from there the bullish upside, could this could be a sign of more bullish action?

Nice Chart by the way!
Reply
norok PRO StefanDino-Guida
Yes, if we break into the cloud then price will consolidate bullishly trying to get price on the bullish side.
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