These are my initial thoughts on what the next two years of BTC may look like. Comments and criticism not only welcome but appreciated, I am new to charting.
This chart is based on an Elliot wave pattern originating from the previous cycle top, drawn to the bottom.
The red horizontal line is major support at 25'000 USD
To highlight key price points a Fibonacci retracement has been drawn from the November 2021 high to the November 2022 low.
A short term bearish target has been highlighted as a supply or liquidity zone between the major support level of $25'000 and $28'450 at the (motive wave 2)
A cycle top target at the end of 2025 (Oct 6 date based previous two cycles) has been estimated at between $73-77k. Price target based on full Fib retracement with 5.3x to 5.6x diminishing returns (from bottom to top) calculated from the trend of diminishing returns established in prior cycles.
No fundamental analysis has been considered as a possible factor to break trends established during previous cycles.
This chart idea, if accurate, would suggest that the value of bitcoin is becoming more and more stable over time.
Possible factors which might affect this prediction would include the popularity of BTC ETFs, potential money printing during the run up to the next American Election, and the current economic situation (debt, money supply, interest rates, strength of USD). I have only cursory knowledge of these factors so have not attempted to estimate their potential influence on the price of BTC. If you have knowledge of these subjects please tell me how you think they will alter this chart idea!
Next I will attempt to chart an abc corrective Elliot Wave to estimate a new cycle bottom after 2025.
Thanks to any who reads this in advance.
Extra thanks to the entire community here on tradingview who freely share their ideas and knowledge. I am learning so much from the great posters here.
This chart is based on an Elliot wave pattern originating from the previous cycle top, drawn to the bottom.
The red horizontal line is major support at 25'000 USD
To highlight key price points a Fibonacci retracement has been drawn from the November 2021 high to the November 2022 low.
A short term bearish target has been highlighted as a supply or liquidity zone between the major support level of $25'000 and $28'450 at the (motive wave 2)
A cycle top target at the end of 2025 (Oct 6 date based previous two cycles) has been estimated at between $73-77k. Price target based on full Fib retracement with 5.3x to 5.6x diminishing returns (from bottom to top) calculated from the trend of diminishing returns established in prior cycles.
No fundamental analysis has been considered as a possible factor to break trends established during previous cycles.
This chart idea, if accurate, would suggest that the value of bitcoin is becoming more and more stable over time.
Possible factors which might affect this prediction would include the popularity of BTC ETFs, potential money printing during the run up to the next American Election, and the current economic situation (debt, money supply, interest rates, strength of USD). I have only cursory knowledge of these factors so have not attempted to estimate their potential influence on the price of BTC. If you have knowledge of these subjects please tell me how you think they will alter this chart idea!
Next I will attempt to chart an abc corrective Elliot Wave to estimate a new cycle bottom after 2025.
Thanks to any who reads this in advance.
Extra thanks to the entire community here on tradingview who freely share their ideas and knowledge. I am learning so much from the great posters here.