After a bull flag breaking down, a bear flag breaking up; traps!
Patterns are going mad again. We can clearly see that we've had a bear flag breaking up, contrary of what it was supposed to do, just after a bull flag breaking down out of nothing. At least for the bear flag we had a support level at $7912.
The last movement was clearly a pump, shorts were liquidated without building a lot of longs. It looks like somebody is trying to accumulate BTC by setting bear traps after bull traps, and finally they will short, triggering stop losses and pumping the price down. They are always doing it in the right moment, when all patterns and indicators show the contrary.
I would not be surprised again if the following move would be a fall by $1000 or more; the opposite is also possible; the volume is now so small that the price is easily manipulated.
Do you want to gamble by trading right now?
After a time when the patterns were ambiguous, now they seem quite unreliable. They are based on statistics, and now statistics are too low; simply, not enough players in the market, and those who are, have big money. The big image looks still bearish though, and if we don't see more volume one way or another, I don't think anyone could predict the actual trend.
Note however the new downtrend channel formed.
Whales are now fishing, and I think they have most of the BTC now; therefore their next logical action is to dump them on the market to make the price fall, in order to buy back. I just don't know after how many other traps.
Meanwhile, I will continue to look at the patterns and waves.
The last movement was clearly a pump, shorts were liquidated without building a lot of longs. It looks like somebody is trying to accumulate BTC by setting bear traps after bull traps, and finally they will short, triggering stop losses and pumping the price down. They are always doing it in the right moment, when all patterns and indicators show the contrary.
I would not be surprised again if the following move would be a fall by $1000 or more; the opposite is also possible; the volume is now so small that the price is easily manipulated.
Do you want to gamble by trading right now?
After a time when the patterns were ambiguous, now they seem quite unreliable. They are based on statistics, and now statistics are too low; simply, not enough players in the market, and those who are, have big money. The big image looks still bearish though, and if we don't see more volume one way or another, I don't think anyone could predict the actual trend.
Note however the new downtrend channel formed.
Whales are now fishing, and I think they have most of the BTC now; therefore their next logical action is to dump them on the market to make the price fall, in order to buy back. I just don't know after how many other traps.
Meanwhile, I will continue to look at the patterns and waves.
Comment:
Funny, just while I was writing, another fall happened, from what could have been a forming bear flag :D
Comment:
Bulls are fighting hard, but the $8185 resistance level seems too strong to pass. From the Elliott waves point of view (if we still have enough statistics to talk about that) it seems we are still on an ABC pattern, but different, larger than I've initially seen, and the wave we're on is the wave B about to retrace.
I will come with an update if it confirms; there is a high probability that the initial target didn't change.
I will come with an update if it confirms; there is a high probability that the initial target didn't change.
