Bitcoin Logarithmic Phases: Accumulation, Breakout, Bubble
I fitted some logarithmic regression bands to the BTC/USD log chart that I'm using as a guide for scaling back my dollar-cost-averaging strategy. These are arbitrarily imposed, so no guarantees that they will hold long-term. Use at your own discretion/risk. If anyone wants them for their own charts, I can try to share them via tradingview. The idea is that when BTC is between green and yellow, we're in an accumulation phase and it makes sense to DCA aggressively.
When Bitcoin closes multiple weekly candles above the yellow band we're in a breakout phase. (the yellow band was hard to fit and is a bit too low around Feb 2020).
Once we are above the red band we're in bubble/overvaluation territory and it's best to proceed with caution. Personally, I've dialed back the bitcoin averages, taken some alt coin positions, and will be looking to periodically scale out some profits here and there as we go higher into bubble territory, though the bulk of my portfolio will remain in crypto.
When Bitcoin closes multiple weekly candles above the yellow band we're in a breakout phase. (the yellow band was hard to fit and is a bit too low around Feb 2020).
Once we are above the red band we're in bubble/overvaluation territory and it's best to proceed with caution. Personally, I've dialed back the bitcoin averages, taken some alt coin positions, and will be looking to periodically scale out some profits here and there as we go higher into bubble territory, though the bulk of my portfolio will remain in crypto.