hi guys. yes, my predictions got wrong, when i thought 6k was the bottom for the up move. many commented me for my wrong decision. yes, i humbly accepted the wrong call. yes i stoplossed too, but i wasn't really depressed though. because this is really the price i was waiting for. it is okay. trading, if i get right all the time i am god. at the same time, trading is about corresponding to market volatility, which, i adjusted to what btc wants to do.
nevertheless, market chose to come down, like 2014, where weekly 21/50ema dead crossed. this is mostly what i have warned and prepared too, but seeing the price sticking high at 6k area, many traders, including me, was confused. because, many warned of dropping to this level at September after a 6100 touch. at that time was when btc kept making lower lows. but btc chose to stay above 6100, even there wasn't a really good bull divergence. also, after September when we had price moving up, alt coins breaking above downtrend channels, i got caught in the mood of it, and many renown traders too. many traders saw alt pumping as a 'channel', but actually they were all bearish rising wedges! anyway! i understood what market wants to do now, and i believe after some pump in december, market will come back down. after that, i think it will have hard time bouncing a lot, and it can break 3k, and even below to 2k.
however, that should be the end, and after months of consolidation, we will move up next year, after summer i think. so maybe, more bear market for next 8~9 months time.
but short term in december, i believe we go up to 5500/5700, even 6k maybe, so we should clean up some mess, and minus's at that point.
so market is now so simple because, we only have about weekly 200ma left to defend more decline, which is around 3100. i think 200ma can be good support, 3k may even be the bottom for btc, if we go down it can be 1.8k. but, anyways, we are almost at the end of price dropping. btc retraced over 80% from it's peaks, and, even if you are holding minus coins, if you have bought a falling knife, don't feel so depressed, if you have not bought at 9k 10k level in the past. SO, buying over 3k, i think from 3150 range to 3600/3700 is fine. 4hr, and many timelines are making a huge bull div now. daily is even trying to make it. mostly, weekly rsi is amost 30, which, is a support that would bounce hard. 2014 did.
i think we should sell until December 22,23rd, before Christmas, after a week of consolidation retrace, btc can go make lower high at early Jan, but fall hard back to 3k support. we should wait around 3weeks then, and buy at late Jan. if we break 6300/6400 level and go up, it can mean something else, but in terms of impulse and divergence, btc should come down to 3k or even below. so realistic sell tp is 5500/5700, in chart, between tp3 and tp4. and, coming week, if price touches 3100/or 3000, prepare stoploss, and under 3000 is stoploss. usually btc price do not touch the moving average, it bounces before touching. so to keep it simple, i think buy this week, sell 3~4 weeks from now. that can be easily put. if, price dips below 3k, i believe that would mean something, that would indicate dip to 1.8k~2k, which is severe, which is even more cruel then 2014. so below 3k is the level you need to be cautious.
happy trading!
nevertheless, market chose to come down, like 2014, where weekly 21/50ema dead crossed. this is mostly what i have warned and prepared too, but seeing the price sticking high at 6k area, many traders, including me, was confused. because, many warned of dropping to this level at September after a 6100 touch. at that time was when btc kept making lower lows. but btc chose to stay above 6100, even there wasn't a really good bull divergence. also, after September when we had price moving up, alt coins breaking above downtrend channels, i got caught in the mood of it, and many renown traders too. many traders saw alt pumping as a 'channel', but actually they were all bearish rising wedges! anyway! i understood what market wants to do now, and i believe after some pump in december, market will come back down. after that, i think it will have hard time bouncing a lot, and it can break 3k, and even below to 2k.
however, that should be the end, and after months of consolidation, we will move up next year, after summer i think. so maybe, more bear market for next 8~9 months time.
but short term in december, i believe we go up to 5500/5700, even 6k maybe, so we should clean up some mess, and minus's at that point.
so market is now so simple because, we only have about weekly 200ma left to defend more decline, which is around 3100. i think 200ma can be good support, 3k may even be the bottom for btc, if we go down it can be 1.8k. but, anyways, we are almost at the end of price dropping. btc retraced over 80% from it's peaks, and, even if you are holding minus coins, if you have bought a falling knife, don't feel so depressed, if you have not bought at 9k 10k level in the past. SO, buying over 3k, i think from 3150 range to 3600/3700 is fine. 4hr, and many timelines are making a huge bull div now. daily is even trying to make it. mostly, weekly rsi is amost 30, which, is a support that would bounce hard. 2014 did.
i think we should sell until December 22,23rd, before Christmas, after a week of consolidation retrace, btc can go make lower high at early Jan, but fall hard back to 3k support. we should wait around 3weeks then, and buy at late Jan. if we break 6300/6400 level and go up, it can mean something else, but in terms of impulse and divergence, btc should come down to 3k or even below. so realistic sell tp is 5500/5700, in chart, between tp3 and tp4. and, coming week, if price touches 3100/or 3000, prepare stoploss, and under 3000 is stoploss. usually btc price do not touch the moving average, it bounces before touching. so to keep it simple, i think buy this week, sell 3~4 weeks from now. that can be easily put. if, price dips below 3k, i believe that would mean something, that would indicate dip to 1.8k~2k, which is severe, which is even more cruel then 2014. so below 3k is the level you need to be cautious.
happy trading!