This is likely the biggest question. I've thrown a lot more frequent posts up the past few days with the recent dump.
Last post I discussed it feeling like we were nearing a bottom as we sat around $3600 and was preparing myself for at least a short term bottom to give a nice bounce and ideally a few days if not weeks or some relief for the bulls. Items I was looking for were a spike in bull volume to quickly reverse price.
BTC then went down to $3457 before giving a strong bounce up to $3910 in under an hour. This is a 13.1% move in a very short time period. Exactly what I was looking for on a short term solid tradeable bounce and potential bottom sign at least for the short term. Unfortunately this came about 30 minutes prior to me waking up :-(
I woke up right before it peaked at $3910 and looking at the size of the move, I personally had zero interest in chasing it at that point. Instead I zoomed out to the 4 hour chart to see the bulls likely are just going to set a lower high and may reach 12 EMA they have consistently rejected from.
Thus far, easily will be a 4 hour lower high and has not reached the 12 EMA yet which isn't a great sign in my opinion. 12 EMA will continue to come down and may eventually catch up to price. Bulls are seeing consolidation here and thus far no red flags such as big spikes in bear volume. Shorts chart also gave a few signs with some shorts closing positions but nowhere near creating a short squeeze.
I then wanted to compare this 4 hour volume with prior bull moves. This was the highest 4 hour bull volume we have seen since the bottom of $4218 and it resulted in a bounce to $4759 (12.8% move). Sound familiar? Sure does to me with that move giving 12.8% and this one giving a 13.1% bounce. Last time we had less than 8 hours before the bears knocked price back down to lower lows. Will this repeat? Nobody knows but I'd be ready for it. This is a pretty large candlestick that we may trade within most of today but will patiently wait and see.
Bulls ideally need this brief consolidation and then leading to higher highs compared to $3910 to try and keep some rally going off the bottoms as well as instill some confidence for money to re-enter the market. Bears will watch for EMAs to serve as resistance and can reload or add to their short positions as remember, a 13% bounce for the bulls gives a nice big opportunity for shorts as well on the opposite side for them to get back to lower lows. So slightly upset I missed what I had been waiting for but unfortunately sleep does call at times. So remaining patient and recognizing if you miss the ideal trade entry, there's no need to chase and just wait for the next trade setup.
Please like, share, comment. Love discussions regarding technical analysis.
Just My 2 Sats!
Last post I discussed it feeling like we were nearing a bottom as we sat around $3600 and was preparing myself for at least a short term bottom to give a nice bounce and ideally a few days if not weeks or some relief for the bulls. Items I was looking for were a spike in bull volume to quickly reverse price.
BTC then went down to $3457 before giving a strong bounce up to $3910 in under an hour. This is a 13.1% move in a very short time period. Exactly what I was looking for on a short term solid tradeable bounce and potential bottom sign at least for the short term. Unfortunately this came about 30 minutes prior to me waking up :-(
I woke up right before it peaked at $3910 and looking at the size of the move, I personally had zero interest in chasing it at that point. Instead I zoomed out to the 4 hour chart to see the bulls likely are just going to set a lower high and may reach 12 EMA they have consistently rejected from.
Thus far, easily will be a 4 hour lower high and has not reached the 12 EMA yet which isn't a great sign in my opinion. 12 EMA will continue to come down and may eventually catch up to price. Bulls are seeing consolidation here and thus far no red flags such as big spikes in bear volume. Shorts chart also gave a few signs with some shorts closing positions but nowhere near creating a short squeeze.
I then wanted to compare this 4 hour volume with prior bull moves. This was the highest 4 hour bull volume we have seen since the bottom of $4218 and it resulted in a bounce to $4759 (12.8% move). Sound familiar? Sure does to me with that move giving 12.8% and this one giving a 13.1% bounce. Last time we had less than 8 hours before the bears knocked price back down to lower lows. Will this repeat? Nobody knows but I'd be ready for it. This is a pretty large candlestick that we may trade within most of today but will patiently wait and see.
Bulls ideally need this brief consolidation and then leading to higher highs compared to $3910 to try and keep some rally going off the bottoms as well as instill some confidence for money to re-enter the market. Bears will watch for EMAs to serve as resistance and can reload or add to their short positions as remember, a 13% bounce for the bulls gives a nice big opportunity for shorts as well on the opposite side for them to get back to lower lows. So slightly upset I missed what I had been waiting for but unfortunately sleep does call at times. So remaining patient and recognizing if you miss the ideal trade entry, there's no need to chase and just wait for the next trade setup.
Please like, share, comment. Love discussions regarding technical analysis.
Just My 2 Sats!
