ronfkingswanson
Long

Starting a new 5-wave bull push; projected fibs -> $270 top?

BTCE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
771 10 10
EDIT 4/27 – $269 TARGET HIT seems like BTCE went a bit overboard (as usual) compared to the others, but coins were traded, orders went thru just fine, so target counts ;-)
EDIT 4/22 – see first comment chart below with revised descent channel and alternate 5-wave             path to $288 max high target

We find ourselves on 4H RSI and MACD right back in the same position as the start of the rally on Feb. 26th. But the correction of that rally that finally found a floor on April 14th stretched all the way to the 1.236 extension of the rally, erasing its gains and then some. So I don't expect a new local             high on this push, but most likely retracing the selloff to max out at the 0.705 OTE             fib zone.

We've got a nice solid first wave leg in place, but haven't quite busted out of the selloff channel. Once we do, however, the Hopium should kick in, creating the Wave 3 boost taking us to $260.

However, as my linked long-term chart shows, I don't see this very near-term rally changing the course of the dominant bear market. Just another opportunity to load up on shorts around $260 before we head back to the $100s.
As always, the day after I publish a chart I realize how sloppy I was. :P Here's a revised descent channel that fits MUCH better (notice median and bottom touches)
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Of course, according to this fitting we aren't poking thru the channel top just yet. Instead, that should happen during the big Wave III.

Also, though I don't show it here (because the fibs would be inverted wrong), for fun I turned it upside down and enabled the 1.236 extension again, since the last series was so damn precise about that level. Turns out, it perfectly intersects the internal geometry line (purple dotted) right at $288, so that's my target-high point (unlikely, but also a strong reversal if hit)
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Nice little bull flag forming on the top of first leg. Could pop pretty soon, or slump for a few days, doesn't change the forecast
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This bull push is really stress testing the bleeding core of this uptrend wave.
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hanging on by its toenails. not looking terribly healthy...
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ChartArt ronfkingswanson
"hanging on by its toenails" I couldn't have visualized it better :) Yes, we are in ultimate despair in terms of my bullishness. The edge of the edge I still can see getting reversed back upwards.
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ChartArt ChartArt
In case you haven't see it. So far we are follow the logic of my older chart. After we had down now I expect the upmove starting Sunday/Monday:

Buy the dip (and then sell again?)
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This bull push isn't looking terribly confident, but there are multiple paths to 270. We could always just skip these hopeful bounces and just slide straight to $120 like my previous Bear Fork charts showed
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True to its reputation, BTC-E put on a fine solo performance today, drawing a huge oversized wick while the rest of the market rose a bit. BTC-e is not the market leader, but it is the zaniest, panicky-est house of chikuns, so if you like drama, that's where you should trade ;-)

Despite all the howls from new traders crying "WTF" and "doesn't count!!", anyone who has been charting bitcoin for a year or two would recognize this as business as usual at BTC-e. As far as I'm concerned, orders were placed, trades went thru, stops were busted -- so my target, which was charted for BTC-e (regardless of what the other exchanges did or did not do), was hit dead on.
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Now the question is whether the rest of the market will work its way up there ;-)
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4H candles are walking my new wave lines (yellow) like a tightrope walker
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but once again, if we don't break that white bear channel, it's back to dumpsville...
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only two months late, but hey, a hit's a hit!
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