EDIT 4/22 – see first comment chart below with revised descent channel and alternate 5-wave path to $288 max high target
We find ourselves on 4H and right back in the same position as the start of the rally on Feb. 26th. But the correction of that rally that finally found a floor on April 14th stretched all the way to the 1.236 extension of the rally, erasing its gains and then some. So I don't expect a new local high on this push, but most likely retracing the selloff to max out at the 0.705 OTE fib zone.
We've got a nice solid first wave leg in place, but haven't quite busted out of the selloff channel. Once we do, however, the Hopium should kick in, creating the Wave 3 boost taking us to $260.
However, as my linked long-term chart shows, I don't see this very near-term rally changing the course of the dominant bear market. Just another opportunity to load up on shorts around $260 before we head back to the $100s.
Despite all the howls from new traders crying "WTF" and "doesn't count!!", anyone who has been charting bitcoin for a year or two would recognize this as business as usual at BTC-e. As far as I'm concerned, orders were placed, trades went thru, stops were busted -- so my target, which was charted for BTC-e (regardless of what the other exchanges did or did not do), was hit dead on.
Now the question is whether the rest of the market will work its way up there ;-)
Also, though I don't show it here (because the fibs would be inverted wrong), for fun I turned it upside down and enabled the 1.236 extension again, since the last series was so damn precise about that level. Turns out, it perfectly intersects the internal geometry line (purple dotted) right at $288, so that's my target-high point (unlikely, but also a strong reversal if hit)