BTC to 40k on my 40th Birthday (2 year outlook)
Chart Time: Daily (~4 year history)
Moving averages:
Pink = 20 EMA
Blue = 200 DMA
Main Trendline (2014 start)
1: We don't need to regurgitate how awful 2018 has been for BTC and crypto markets as a whole. We have found ourselves in the top 3 worst recessions so far in BTC history measured in terms of price correction + duration. So congratulations if you're still playing the market with some success. The positive takeaway I've had trading in this market is really fine tuning my trading + RISK MGMT strategies. I put RISK MGMT in ALL CAPS for a reason here. Everyone can make money in a bull market. But it's times like these is when you get tested to see if you can break even. So if you've been a victim of losing some trading capital this year hopefully this has made you a more technical trader using classical charting techniques, knowing how to identify resistance/support zones as well as employing strategies early so you don't react emotionally.
2: Let's get right to it. So the basic idea behind this chart is my 2 year outlook for BTC. Sometimes is good to pan out a bit and come up with an overall strategy. Yes it could be completely wrong and the market reacts much differently, but that doesn't matter. What matters is you have a plan and contingency plans underneath it. Future projections can always be adjusted to fit a new strategy. I'd rather be in a position where I have to fix a line on a graph than trying to make up 3% capital loss on a trade because I didn't have any foresight.
3: If you start from left to right you'll see I mark an important indicator. Whenever the 20 EMA crosses above the 200 DMA this marks very bullish strength in Bitcoin (as well as any other asset). So for you investor types who want to get into BTC when it's the safest with a long term approach, this might be the time. You'll see when these lines crossed BTC went on a multi-year bull run before the parabolic curve in late 2017.
4: I do believe BTC needs to go much lower triggering all of the stop losses before we go higher. This is obvious in all momentum indicators as well as volume. Whenever we start to see a mini bull recovery it's always a Higher Low. We have been trading inside a descending triangle that everyone and their grandma is aware of now. Obviously critical support is around 5800. If BTC sustains below this for a daily candle close I believe Buy Zone 1 will be where smart money will being adding to long term holdings. Now if things go to plan I believe BTC needs to do a VIOLENT V bottom recovery triggering all the stop losses. This will flush out all the speculators and sellers will begin to dry up. The lower end of Buy Zone 1 and early stages of Buy Zone 2 will not be possible to short. What we should see is once all those stop losses get triggered BTC within a couple of days recover back up to the bottom of the descending triangle. So in a matter of 1-2 days we should see over a 1k-2k price recovery. If it doesn't this could signal disastrous scenario and The dead Zone 3 could be in play. I would not trade Zone 3.
5: BTC has to respect this multi-year trend line if we have any hope that 2019-2020 will be positive. BTC will probably break it but then needs to quickly recover to find it as support. Before the parabolic curve in late 2017 I mentioned that there was a approx a 2 year BTC growth period that was pretty reasonable respecting that trend line. I simply mirrored that price action after the V bottom and you'll see getting to 40K by Dec 2020 isn't out of the question.
Moving averages:
Pink = 20 EMA
Blue = 200 DMA
Main Trendline (2014 start)
1: We don't need to regurgitate how awful 2018 has been for BTC and crypto markets as a whole. We have found ourselves in the top 3 worst recessions so far in BTC history measured in terms of price correction + duration. So congratulations if you're still playing the market with some success. The positive takeaway I've had trading in this market is really fine tuning my trading + RISK MGMT strategies. I put RISK MGMT in ALL CAPS for a reason here. Everyone can make money in a bull market. But it's times like these is when you get tested to see if you can break even. So if you've been a victim of losing some trading capital this year hopefully this has made you a more technical trader using classical charting techniques, knowing how to identify resistance/support zones as well as employing strategies early so you don't react emotionally.
2: Let's get right to it. So the basic idea behind this chart is my 2 year outlook for BTC. Sometimes is good to pan out a bit and come up with an overall strategy. Yes it could be completely wrong and the market reacts much differently, but that doesn't matter. What matters is you have a plan and contingency plans underneath it. Future projections can always be adjusted to fit a new strategy. I'd rather be in a position where I have to fix a line on a graph than trying to make up 3% capital loss on a trade because I didn't have any foresight.
3: If you start from left to right you'll see I mark an important indicator. Whenever the 20 EMA crosses above the 200 DMA this marks very bullish strength in Bitcoin (as well as any other asset). So for you investor types who want to get into BTC when it's the safest with a long term approach, this might be the time. You'll see when these lines crossed BTC went on a multi-year bull run before the parabolic curve in late 2017.
4: I do believe BTC needs to go much lower triggering all of the stop losses before we go higher. This is obvious in all momentum indicators as well as volume. Whenever we start to see a mini bull recovery it's always a Higher Low. We have been trading inside a descending triangle that everyone and their grandma is aware of now. Obviously critical support is around 5800. If BTC sustains below this for a daily candle close I believe Buy Zone 1 will be where smart money will being adding to long term holdings. Now if things go to plan I believe BTC needs to do a VIOLENT V bottom recovery triggering all the stop losses. This will flush out all the speculators and sellers will begin to dry up. The lower end of Buy Zone 1 and early stages of Buy Zone 2 will not be possible to short. What we should see is once all those stop losses get triggered BTC within a couple of days recover back up to the bottom of the descending triangle. So in a matter of 1-2 days we should see over a 1k-2k price recovery. If it doesn't this could signal disastrous scenario and The dead Zone 3 could be in play. I would not trade Zone 3.
5: BTC has to respect this multi-year trend line if we have any hope that 2019-2020 will be positive. BTC will probably break it but then needs to quickly recover to find it as support. Before the parabolic curve in late 2017 I mentioned that there was a approx a 2 year BTC growth period that was pretty reasonable respecting that trend line. I simply mirrored that price action after the V bottom and you'll see getting to 40K by Dec 2020 isn't out of the question.
Comment:
Again, the 20 EMA is the pink moving average. The pink moving average that I drew is merely me forecasting where I see the EMA headed over the next couple of years. My analysis is not invalidated until the 20 EMA crosses above the 200 DMA. So as you can see BTC has a long wayyy to go until we get bullish again. Every time people are forecasting the moon and begin talking about lambos is right around the time bitcoin hits a higher low and we fall again. So don't get emotional. Were currently trading in the dumb zone so until btc sustains a real trajectory and breaks above the 20 EMA/50 DMA with fierce volume there really isn't any trade at the moment.
Comment:
BTC is stalling at the moment near the top of the descending triangle. This is as expected. BTC has defended the bottom of the triangle 5 times this year. If you missed the recent up move you have to wait. if btc moves above the descending triangle wait wait wait. If btc breaks above the 200 DMA (green line) position your buys. This will be around 7.4k. btc will likely move towards 8.4k and possibly 9.9k retesting prior lower highs. if you buy at 7.4k have your stop loss just below the top of the descending triangle. a fall back into the triangle will be extremely bearish signal.
Trade active:
BTC testing the upper trend line of the descending triangle. facing very tough resistance however at 6.5k. Please see my latest update on which shows the 60 minute chart and more or less 7 day analysis and areas to watch for.
Comment:
btc has sideway traded out of the descending triangle but things are still neutral-bearish. were still trading below the 20 EMA, 50 DMA and well below the 100/200 MA's. Positives is that BTC continues to print LH's since the bottom back at the end of July. The bulls are still waiting for a breakout to confirm a possible trend reversal. Selling pressure seems to becoming more and more exhausted as you can see each drop is less in magnitude.
Trade active:
Chart idea is still in play perfectly from Sept....
Trade active:
Chart still in play! Expect a severe V bottom recovery once bottom is found. early indication will be the next daily candle that DOES NOT make a lower low
Trade closed: target reached:
If I called this exact bottom back in Sept that would be pretty badass with timing almost being spot on.
Trade active:
I still have to go back to this chart once in awhile and say damn I called it! How did I choose 3.1k would be the bottom back on Sep. 25th. Let's say it was an interesting fib level and prior support in 2017 if and only if that 3 year trend line got broken...
Moving Averages:
*Green = 200 DMA