Been awhile.
Here, I'm looking somewhat medium term. Key supports/resistances are solid yellow lines, confirmed both by price in the medium term and high volume nodes on VPVR. In blue, the diagonal support we've had since breaking the log ATH resistance. Takeaways are 8.8-8.9k is a place to look for short term support (as we just bounced off it recently), 9.4k short term resistance (with 9.2k another resistance, not pictured here on a line though).
Past that, if we fall off, the yellow dotted line could be a place to look for at least a bounce as well as it's a local high volume node and could be horizontal resistance turned support from the descending ATH log resistance.
My bias is towards further downward movement("trend is friend"). I chose OBV (orange lines) instead of RSI because RSI isn't incredibly useful in strong trend, though I do like it as a trend continuance sign though hidden divergence. Reasoning for that is that as a momentum indicator, many normal divergences, like bulls becoming stronger while bears still make new lows, could just be a normal pullback from crazy strong momentum to only strong momentum. So in that respect they can happen many times before the true reversal. OBV, on the other hand, basically gives a good view on which "team" has the volume on their side. This entire trend post BGD has been in an uptrend for OBV with relatively small fall offs; this period post 10k high has been the first time the OBV has been trending down for any significant period of time. The bears are the ones with volume currently, so my bias is also shifting bearish.
One thing is if anyone is tempted to draw a H&S with that line I drew, volume doesn't really fit the pattern so I'm a skeptic. But I do think a break down of the support would obviously be a bearish development.
Theoretically (mostly as a complete guess - showing my bias here), it'd be plausible for us to form a flag here almost all the way up to 9.2k before I'd really be comfortable with 8.8k holding, and even then I may wait for 9.4k. If we do keep falling, I'll be watching 8.5-8.6k closely, and following that 8.2k and 7.8k. Falling below those would be a pretty bad sign for the market *really* having bottomed out.
Here, I'm looking somewhat medium term. Key supports/resistances are solid yellow lines, confirmed both by price in the medium term and high volume nodes on VPVR. In blue, the diagonal support we've had since breaking the log ATH resistance. Takeaways are 8.8-8.9k is a place to look for short term support (as we just bounced off it recently), 9.4k short term resistance (with 9.2k another resistance, not pictured here on a line though).
Past that, if we fall off, the yellow dotted line could be a place to look for at least a bounce as well as it's a local high volume node and could be horizontal resistance turned support from the descending ATH log resistance.
My bias is towards further downward movement("trend is friend"). I chose OBV (orange lines) instead of RSI because RSI isn't incredibly useful in strong trend, though I do like it as a trend continuance sign though hidden divergence. Reasoning for that is that as a momentum indicator, many normal divergences, like bulls becoming stronger while bears still make new lows, could just be a normal pullback from crazy strong momentum to only strong momentum. So in that respect they can happen many times before the true reversal. OBV, on the other hand, basically gives a good view on which "team" has the volume on their side. This entire trend post BGD has been in an uptrend for OBV with relatively small fall offs; this period post 10k high has been the first time the OBV has been trending down for any significant period of time. The bears are the ones with volume currently, so my bias is also shifting bearish.
One thing is if anyone is tempted to draw a H&S with that line I drew, volume doesn't really fit the pattern so I'm a skeptic. But I do think a break down of the support would obviously be a bearish development.
Theoretically (mostly as a complete guess - showing my bias here), it'd be plausible for us to form a flag here almost all the way up to 9.2k before I'd really be comfortable with 8.8k holding, and even then I may wait for 9.4k. If we do keep falling, I'll be watching 8.5-8.6k closely, and following that 8.2k and 7.8k. Falling below those would be a pretty bad sign for the market *really* having bottomed out.