Hi there, I'm a 20 y/o noob trader from South Africa. Have recently become interested in BTC. Here is my first idea:
It appears to me, that coming into 2017, BTC began exhibiting the first signs of an Elliot wave developing. I have marked this Elliot wave in blue.
The reasons I consider this movement to be in line with that of an Elliot wave is as follows:
Waves within an Elliot wave are perpetuated by movements between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These differences in attitude create patterns in the price movement.
Properties of an Elliot Wave:
Wave 1 - Hardly ever obvious at its inception, previous trend is still considered to be in force.
Wave 2 - Corrects wave 1, never extends beyond the starting point of wave 1 however. Bearish sentiment builds. Volume is lower than wave 1.
Wave 3 - Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. (volume higher than wave 2)
Wave 4 - Volume is well below than that of wave three . This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend.
Wave 5 - Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top.
Now, we see that in 2017, BTC has been met with resistance at around $1050. You will see on the graph, highlighted in red circles, that BTC has tried to penetrate the 1050 channel for a while now, and keeps being met with resistance, only to find support at around 900-950, hence the 950 support line.
Even today, 29/03, BTC struggles to maintain its price above 1050, but sees strong support in the low 900s.
Right now, I would short at $1050, and hope to catch BTC at about $950 within the next few days - presuming it heads down. Should this happen, another option that opens up is going long at about $950, where BTC is sure to bounce off support again up to $1050 resistance.
TL;DR - Would short now at ~1040, wait for the dip and 950 in the next few days, and then go long.
HOWEVER, should BTC continue to climb into the $1050 resistance channel, we could then see that channel acting as SUPPORT. So keep and eye and be careful. Happy trading!
~Callum~
It appears to me, that coming into 2017, BTC began exhibiting the first signs of an Elliot wave developing. I have marked this Elliot wave in blue.
The reasons I consider this movement to be in line with that of an Elliot wave is as follows:
Waves within an Elliot wave are perpetuated by movements between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These differences in attitude create patterns in the price movement.
Properties of an Elliot Wave:
Wave 1 - Hardly ever obvious at its inception, previous trend is still considered to be in force.
Wave 2 - Corrects wave 1, never extends beyond the starting point of wave 1 however. Bearish sentiment builds. Volume is lower than wave 1.
Wave 3 - Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. (volume higher than wave 2)
Wave 4 - Volume is well below than that of wave three . This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend.
Wave 5 - Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top.
Now, we see that in 2017, BTC has been met with resistance at around $1050. You will see on the graph, highlighted in red circles, that BTC has tried to penetrate the 1050 channel for a while now, and keeps being met with resistance, only to find support at around 900-950, hence the 950 support line.
Even today, 29/03, BTC struggles to maintain its price above 1050, but sees strong support in the low 900s.
Right now, I would short at $1050, and hope to catch BTC at about $950 within the next few days - presuming it heads down. Should this happen, another option that opens up is going long at about $950, where BTC is sure to bounce off support again up to $1050 resistance.
TL;DR - Would short now at ~1040, wait for the dip and 950 in the next few days, and then go long.
HOWEVER, should BTC continue to climb into the $1050 resistance channel, we could then see that channel acting as SUPPORT. So keep and eye and be careful. Happy trading!
~Callum~
Comment:
We're seemingly on or way to 1050. The question is, will we see the usual bearishness at 1050, or are the bulls stronger today?
We're seemingly on or way to 1050. The question is, will we see the usual bearishness at 1050, or are the bulls stronger today?
Comment:
Looks like we *might* make it into the 1050 resistance channel today, following the 4 hour trend over this week. I estimate a peak of about 1070-1080 - then it will be interesting to see if we get met with resistance and sent back to 950, or if we keep going, following the trend of this week.
Stay tuned, folks.
Looks like we *might* make it into the 1050 resistance channel today, following the 4 hour trend over this week. I estimate a peak of about 1070-1080 - then it will be interesting to see if we get met with resistance and sent back to 950, or if we keep going, following the trend of this week.
Stay tuned, folks.
Comment:
Looking at the hourly chart for this week, we see we are still in line with the upward trend, however over the past 2 days, this new downward trend (in red) has started to emerged.
Hopefully, if we manage to break the red channel within the next few hours, we'll stay in line with the upward trend!
Looking at the hourly chart for this week, we see we are still in line with the upward trend, however over the past 2 days, this new downward trend (in red) has started to emerged.
Hopefully, if we manage to break the red channel within the next few hours, we'll stay in line with the upward trend!
Comment:
Here's another, perhaps more radical way of measuring the angle of the upward trend, in line with the peaks. We see that in this instance, we've actually dropped out of the ascending trend for the past few hours, and we're sitting comfortably within the descending red trend.
Hopefully, we'll break the red channel and make it back into the upward trend. Looks very volatile, could go any way!
Here's another, perhaps more radical way of measuring the angle of the upward trend, in line with the peaks. We see that in this instance, we've actually dropped out of the ascending trend for the past few hours, and we're sitting comfortably within the descending red trend.
Hopefully, we'll break the red channel and make it back into the upward trend. Looks very volatile, could go any way!
Comment:
Well, we have definitely broken the ascending trends - for now. We seem to be following this red downward trend, so it looks like shorting at around $1040 (as i suggested at the top of this post) would have been the best short term solution.
Unfortunately, we find ourselves in a bull trap, however, if we manage to break out if this trend, that will serve as a definite bullish flag!
Well, we have definitely broken the ascending trends - for now. We seem to be following this red downward trend, so it looks like shorting at around $1040 (as i suggested at the top of this post) would have been the best short term solution.
Unfortunately, we find ourselves in a bull trap, however, if we manage to break out if this trend, that will serve as a definite bullish flag!
Comment:
Would definitely stand by my earlier advice!
"Would short now at ~1040, wait for the dip and 950 in the next few days, and then go long."
"Would short now at ~1040, wait for the dip and 950 in the next few days, and then go long."
However, looks like it could still be a strong day, and it this point, I honestly believe that BTC can go either way. Will have to see the sentiments of the market today.
At the moment, I'm still in long at ~1030 from yesterday, hoping that today will be a bullish one, and perhaps we can break into the 1050 zone. I suspect BTC may make it into the zone today, peaking at around 1100 before being met with resistance.
Either way, it will be an interesting day - either BTC breaks 1050 resistance, and keeps going, or it climbs to 1050, gets met with resistance, and bounces down to the 950 safe zone.
Happy trading!
~Callum~