BTC nearing short-term Reversal from this Down-trend

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin's price appears to have followed the path suggested in my last post/chart (see my previous chart below to compare).

(Moving my updates to this new post)

I hope you've all had a safe and profitable weekend!

Follow me on Twitter for faster updates and additional commentary: @AndrewEDavis

(I'll likely be quite busy/away again for some times this week to catch up on business work.)

My previous chart:
Comment: Bitcoin has followed my outlined path from days ago quite closely (but slightly truncated to my targets).

BTC put in a new local low, followed by a sharp rise, as my previous chart suggested.

I see a different count now, where we're only now completing W-4 correction with 5th down pending.

We may have completed an Expanded Flat W-4 starting 5th down, or a 5th subW for C of 4 may be left.

There is still "some possibility" that we have bottomed for now and can move impulsively upward, however it seems unlikely per the wave count.
Be cautious with stop-loss if shorting.

Comment: BTC moving exactly along my Main Path so far.
(Yellow Check since I was open to alternate possibility of a 5th subW before drop)

I like to get in an out of positions quickly, so I "may" take early profits on current Short @ 1st Yellow box ~6100, in case this is an ABC then up.

(Note, more to some of the "Critics" on Twitter):

Once again, this is just me being transparent, not a "Call" that anyone Should/Must take. (Please do not blame if it continues to drop lower)

I'm well up for the day, yesterday, day before that...
I Enter & Exit based on my own personal preference & skill level.
Each trader needs to develop their own strategy.
Comment: I exited my short positions in profit earlier (thankfully) before this price pump started (6200's range).
Exited when I saw price stalling to drop further (losing momentum).
Re-entered Shorts on this move up (will have to monitor).
I'm assuming this may be an ABC of B wave, of larger ABC.

Comment: "I'm assuming this may be an ABC of B wave, of larger ABC."
Or, wave-2 of 5 down.
If there price begins to drop steeply in the coming hours, then we may have started a wave-3 down.
Comment: This current move up looks about complete for now at ~6522 (Bitfinex)/(6542 on BitMex).
Comment: I've just been doing some quick scalps, in & out of positions quickly.
I noted yesterday that I may take early exit on my Short from the initial drop, BTC stopped about 100 points short of that target, but I still took exit profits.
Waiting for market to settle to better analyze.

I'm glad for the recent Bullishness, especially from alts.
However, these recent movements seem a bit "Trapish" to me, a bit manipulated.
Would love to go Long, but I don't Long in oversold RSI.
Just shorting any small spikes with quick exit till things settle.

(I was expecting 5 subwaves here. Stopped abruptly and took off without retrace)

Comment: Bitcoin and Altcoins beginning to show short-term weakness now.
Next significant $BTC downside Supports:
I'm just quickly in & out of scalp positions, locking in profits, till more clarity.
(Away for a bit)

"Next significant $BTC downside Supports" - To be considered IF it continues dropping.
I'm not confirming yet that the upward move is over, just that it's now showing first signs of weakening since the past day.
Comment: I mentioned in my last post yesterday:
"... show short-term weakness now.
Next significant $BTC downside Supports:
Both areas are where BTC price dropped to then bounced.
I'm looking to exit short positions soon. We're either at 5th subW down or just completed an ABC.

BTC Position:

Comment: (Updates moved to New post)

BTC is at a breaking point, fast movement may come some time soon.

It does seem more likely to break DOWN, to me.
Dropping below 6400, makes 6200-6000 likely.

A flash pump to/above ~6800 invalidates this.
(Sorry for my long absence, I plan to resume being active & more consistent soon)

(Please do not blame if it continues to drop lower) <- well if it turns out you sold 2 million bitcoin on a market order i guess people will kinda blame you :D but then again after selling that amount i guess you wouldnt mind anyway. seriously if someone is complaining about making bad trades its not your fault not even the markets fault its on them to decide what to do. if you pick a target it might very well turn out to be spot on doesnt mean i should trade on it .. i as well as everyone else has to decide what to do and have options availble what if x or y happens once those decision are made who cares about targets or feelings or prediction. they are just to help us arrive at a likly outcome and after that is done its up to every single trader to decide what to do. we can not control how much money we make the only thing we can control is how much we lose and its not your job to protect other peolps money thats their own job. so dont ever take it serious if some people blaming you. people who are looking for how it is done rather then where to go love you :)
+1 Reply
@Dayta, thank you for your kind comments! I very much agree. :)

The last time I got stopped-out (sort of broke even, small loss on BTC, profit on Alts), was here:

I was just giving "commentary" on my trades that day, quick scalps in and out.
My general next direction was down for the next hours, but got stopped out in a quick BTC Long scalp, when price started dropping unexpectedly.

I got some complaints there (one comment, some messages) about my "call" being wrong, but it wasn't really a call, and less experienced trades shouldn't mimic scalp plays if they don't have the experience/skill. :)

Those with experience know how to get in and out of positions with minimal loss, while I suppose some complainers tried to copy my scalp, but didn't tight stop-loss..
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