I'll be doing something different this week. I figured I'd do a rolling analysis of Bitcoin as the price action unfolds.
I'll do this by posting updated comments at key reaction points or as price action unfolds.
Most of this price action will be on the 1HR timeframe.
But I'll also cover key daily levels as well as some lower time frame analysis if it makes sense.
So far after Monday NY open.
Obvious sell off to the daily mix 200. Which is red meaning it still is a weak upward impulse.
On chart I've outlined both upside and downside key reaction areas.
I've been watching for more downside moves the last few weeks.
With this day breaking far past the Rex Dog Average does point to more downside.
Also, this move and recent value channel above might be enough to turn the momentum indicators to algo short on the daily timeframe.
Outlined below is the downside reaction point:
Pretty clear level 25%, previous week open level as well as aVWAP. Those all collide at the 37K to 39K price level. I'd expect some reaction here.
If this day closes red then watching the Tuesday NY open will be key.
I'll do this by posting updated comments at key reaction points or as price action unfolds.
Most of this price action will be on the 1HR timeframe.
But I'll also cover key daily levels as well as some lower time frame analysis if it makes sense.
So far after Monday NY open.
Obvious sell off to the daily mix 200. Which is red meaning it still is a weak upward impulse.
On chart I've outlined both upside and downside key reaction areas.
I've been watching for more downside moves the last few weeks.
With this day breaking far past the Rex Dog Average does point to more downside.
Also, this move and recent value channel above might be enough to turn the momentum indicators to algo short on the daily timeframe.
Outlined below is the downside reaction point:
Pretty clear level 25%, previous week open level as well as aVWAP. Those all collide at the 37K to 39K price level. I'd expect some reaction here.
If this day closes red then watching the Tuesday NY open will be key.
Comment:
4D also points to an additional level I'd expect some reaction if downside hits it:
Comment:
Currently sitting at bottom of value channel. Outlined on chart with upper excess.
Generally, when BTC creates a VC from the low it ends on the high.
The potential outcome here shows either a strong upside reaction on the following day or Tuesday will impulse down below the value channel.
Value channel marked on chart.
Generally, when BTC creates a VC from the low it ends on the high.
The potential outcome here shows either a strong upside reaction on the following day or Tuesday will impulse down below the value channel.
Value channel marked on chart.
Comment:
failure at key level defined earlier in day. Now we have 2 very obvious 1HR levels with rejection areas above -
Comment:
*Monday close update. Right on avwap from highs. also at low and rejection point.
This is a perfect example of why wicks are rejection and arrows. Rejection showed that price wanted to go lower.
This next lower rejection should be a greater reaction.
This is a perfect example of why wicks are rejection and arrows. Rejection showed that price wanted to go lower.
This next lower rejection should be a greater reaction.
Comment:
As I write this day open is being tested. Aligns with momentum indicators, so far a failure. but most likely another upward test in the cards.
Downside we have a wick that is good rejection but should be looked at as an arrow. I's more of a 50/50 compared to the last arrow wick given it's location.
Lower level anchored vwap area and corresponding levels still on radar for impulse down reaction areas.
Downside we have a wick that is good rejection but should be looked at as an arrow. I's more of a 50/50 compared to the last arrow wick given it's location.
Lower level anchored vwap area and corresponding levels still on radar for impulse down reaction areas.
Comment:
So far BTC is showing some downside support just short of the key area I outlined. I'm still expecting price to get to this area before we see heavy buying support.
Marked on updated chart is upward reaction points.
It might be setting up for a overnight trading channel on the 1HR with possible main movement on NY cash open the next day. Here's outline of key areas:
Marked on updated chart is upward reaction points.
It might be setting up for a overnight trading channel on the 1HR with possible main movement on NY cash open the next day. Here's outline of key areas:
Comment:
Currently first test of 60m RDA. So far a failure. Look for a over shoot then either a failure to a lower test or multiple closes above the RDA showing intention. So far price action is mirroring what we is happening in the NDX and the buy the dip crowd of retail sellers. Follow on will be the "trend' buyers.
I still see more probability of downside long term but have no idea on timing for that.
I still see more probability of downside long term but have no idea on timing for that.
Comment:
Daily outlook well before the day close. If the day closes strong I expect a follow thru day to possible test of the Rex Dog Average. Failure from that area is high as it's the lower range of the value channel.
One thing to counter that is this downward impulse could just be an low excess test of the value channel, that doesn't typically happen at the end of the channel though. Typically it happens in the middle or begining.
Daily chart with rejection zone outlined:
One thing to counter that is this downward impulse could just be an low excess test of the value channel, that doesn't typically happen at the end of the channel though. Typically it happens in the middle or begining.
Daily chart with rejection zone outlined:
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