This is a chart to show the potential movements of BTC from the current PA. Essentially, if the resistance at 31.8k is a macro top then deeper retracements down as low as 17k are possible.
However, even considering diminishing returns the 100% move from the macro low is inherently weak. I speculate that there is still an additional impulse to come before the halving to bring BTC into the 42k+ area.
This is important because it invalidates the macro 5 wave scenario to the downside since 31.8k is a Wave 4 max retracement of 0.618. If BTC was to break down from here and move below 17k it would imply the macro low is not in. This is my least likely scenario.
What is more probable here is either a hold around 24.2k to 25k indicating a flat ABC correction before a final impulse. However, if that fails then we have to accept the possibility that the macro wave 1 is in and this is a macro 2 retracement. I would primarily be looking at 20k-22k as a bottoming area.
This makes expectations of the bull cycle conservative with an ATH only at 75k due to a weak macro 1. Wave 3 however, will indicate whether there is later strength in the cycle so it is too early to be calling the ATH projection with any confidence. If 42k is reached prior to the halving then a more normal cycle seems statistically likely and targets of 156k area seem more realistic.
None of the above constitutes as investment/financial advice, and is created solely for entertainment purposes.
However, even considering diminishing returns the 100% move from the macro low is inherently weak. I speculate that there is still an additional impulse to come before the halving to bring BTC into the 42k+ area.
This is important because it invalidates the macro 5 wave scenario to the downside since 31.8k is a Wave 4 max retracement of 0.618. If BTC was to break down from here and move below 17k it would imply the macro low is not in. This is my least likely scenario.
What is more probable here is either a hold around 24.2k to 25k indicating a flat ABC correction before a final impulse. However, if that fails then we have to accept the possibility that the macro wave 1 is in and this is a macro 2 retracement. I would primarily be looking at 20k-22k as a bottoming area.
This makes expectations of the bull cycle conservative with an ATH only at 75k due to a weak macro 1. Wave 3 however, will indicate whether there is later strength in the cycle so it is too early to be calling the ATH projection with any confidence. If 42k is reached prior to the halving then a more normal cycle seems statistically likely and targets of 156k area seem more realistic.
None of the above constitutes as investment/financial advice, and is created solely for entertainment purposes.