ruud_one

BTCUSD - Inverse H&S possible, beware the wounded bear

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
TL:DR - Hoping for an inverse Head and Shoulders reversal in the next week. If price breaks out on heavy volume look for $7730. If price breaks out on low volume look for $7350. Beware the wounded bear.

This is the BTCUSD chart with 1 hour candles. On the daily the $6000 support line was penetrated but on the weekly this support level was held...so far. The longer the timeframe the more powerful the signal. Also, the short term downtrend that has acted as resistance for so long (dotted blue) has been broken which is a good sign. The market is now trying to figure out where to go next.

Outlined above is a potential inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern I am eyeing. The neckline is around $6850. We are currently forming the left shoulder, if this is indeed a valid signal, and I would expect completion in the next 1-8 days. If I wanted to aggressively trade this I would buy now with a stop around $5750. Why $5750? Because the inverse H&S isn't invalidated until a new lower low is formed. Currently it appears as the though we are trying to make a higher low which is a bullish signal.

If indeed the higher low pans out and we complete the left shoulder look for price to move toward $7350. This is a conservative target. If we move higher on relatively low volume then I would take profits at $7350. However, if there is good volume then it is conceivable this pattern takes price to $7730. If I am to trade this formation I will base my target off of the volume: good volume = more aggressive, low volume = less aggressive.

A conservative strategy is to wait for price to get back to the neckline and breakout. Buying at $6950 and selling at $7350 is still an almost 6% profit.

On the other side of the coin it is entirely possible weakness returns and we crash through the $6,000 support. Next levels would be $5,800 and around $5,400.

***This is not investing advice. I am not an investing professional. Do not invest what you cannot afford to lose. All investors should seek guidance from licensed financial advisers and not random people on the internet.***

Comments

Hi wounded bear here.
I broke my shoulder, carrying the bags of money I made shorting this ponzi. Really hurts :/
Reply
MrRenev MrRenev
@MrRenev, I really have no life...
Reply
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