If you trace it back, the daily MA 125 acted as support for the BTC price during the last bull run from October 14, 2015 to September 14, 2017 all along.
But after September 14, 2017 the hitherto normal upward trend became more and more of a hyper-inflationary "bubble", which can be seen from the fact that the price was getting further and further away from support way too fast. It came as it had to come - the bubble has burst on December 16, 2017.
The anatomy of the BTC price development:
Normal growth phase: 14.10.2015 - 14.09.2017 (MA 125 is acting as support)
Bubble forming phase: 14.09.2017 - 16.12.2017
Bubble bursting phase: 16.12.2017 - 05.02.2018
After-bubble-burst phase: 05.02.2018 - until today (MA 125 has become resistance)
The key is, that old support MA 125 has become new resistance in the after-bubble-burst phase.
I believe, this is the phase we are still in. And I believe, it will end when the MA 125 will cross the MA 205 again.
After that the BTC price will certainly move one way or another.
Could become bullish, as last time, but it does not have to. There is no automatism.
So we will see how it evolves this time. ;-)
It's getting crazier and crazier, BITFINEX is off by 0,4% in the meantime - and that's a lot.
TradingView automatic technical analysis tool says SELL Bitcoin on COINBASE and BUY Bitcoin on BITFINEX at the same time...
My view is this: The current price level $ 5.5k is just a stopover on the further way down.
The next 23.6% retracement leads us to $ 4.2k in the long term.
This is going to become an important key level in 2019 -- much like $234 in 2015.
It will probably attract the price like a magnet for a long time.
Notice how the bottom formed between weekly MA125 and MA205 last time?
We are not there yet. There is still hope. ;-)
It's getting crazier and crazier, BITFINEX is off by 0,4% in the meantime - and that's a lot. TradingView automatic TA tool says SELL Bitcoin on COINBASE and BUY Bitcoin on BITFINEX at the same time...
Many alt coins will have a hard time to pass.
Judging just by the today's total markt cap
BTC: 116,743 Million USD
XRP: 23,201 Million USD (1/5 of BTC's)
NANO: 330 Million USD (1/354 of BTC's)
ICX : 271 Million USD (1/431 of BTC's)
you can make your own assessment of who has any chances of getting through.
No one knows for sure how it will be in the future, but from today's point of view it's all a game of probability, really.