ReallyMe

When will BTC finally reach the real bottom?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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1325 14
I will keep it short and simple. The chart says it all.

Sep 24
Comment: I find it quite interesting to see why the daily MA 125 plays a special role. Here is what I figured out.

If you trace it back, the daily MA 125 acted as support for the BTC price during the last bull run from October 14, 2015 to September 14, 2017 all along.
But after September 14, 2017 the hitherto normal upward trend became more and more of a hyper-inflationary "bubble", which can be seen from the fact that the price was getting further and further away from support way too fast. It came as it had to come - the bubble has burst on December 16, 2017.

The anatomy of the BTC price development:

Normal growth phase: 14.10.2015 - 14.09.2017 (MA 125 is acting as support)
Bubble forming phase: 14.09.2017 - 16.12.2017
Bubble bursting phase: 16.12.2017 - 05.02.2018
After-bubble-burst phase: 05.02.2018 - until today (MA 125 has become resistance)

The key is, that old support MA 125 has become new resistance in the after-bubble-burst phase.
I believe, this is the phase we are still in. And I believe, it will end when the MA 125 will cross the MA 205 again.
After that the BTC price will certainly move one way or another.
Could become bullish, as last time, but it does not have to. There is no automatism.

So we will see how it evolves this time. ;-)
Oct 16
Comment: I switchedto using https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbo... ($6445) instead of https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbo... ($6768)
It's getting crazier and crazier, BITFINEX is off by 0,4% in the meantime - and that's a lot.
TradingView automatic technical analysis tool says SELL Bitcoin on COINBASE and BUY Bitcoin on BITFINEX at the same time...
Oct 17
Comment: typo: I meant "off by 5% - and that's a lot"
Oct 19
Comment: Lil' darling, it's gonna be a long, cold, lonely winter...
Nov 16
Comment: In light of recent events (massive selloff on 14-Nov-2018), it's time for an update.

My view is this: The current price level $ 5.5k is just a stopover on the further way down.
The next 23.6% retracement leads us to $ 4.2k in the long term.

This is going to become an important key level in 2019 -- much like $234 in 2015.
It will probably attract the price like a magnet for a long time.
Nov 20
Comment: $4.3k from a higher perspective
Nov 26
Comment:
Dec 03
Comment:
Notice how the bottom formed between weekly MA125 and MA205 last time?
We are not there yet. There is still hope. ;-)
Dec 04
Comment: Thought of the Day: If $3.1k breaks the Bitcoin is over
Dec 10
Comment: I think we're about to slump to $ 2.5k
Sep 13
Comment: Update available: The horrible thruth about Bitcoin - Part 2 - runs like clockwork...
Good thing it's only a thought and not the truth.
Reply
ReallyMe Kgear117
@Kgear117, yeah but, look, we are approaching it. Who's to know if it's going to work out this time again. There is no guaranteee. So it remains exciting up till the end.
+2 Reply
I switched to using https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=COINBASE%3ABTCUSD ($6445) instead of https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BITFINEX%3ABTCUSD ($6768) for analysis.
It's getting crazier and crazier, BITFINEX is off by 0,4% in the meantime - and that's a lot. TradingView automatic TA tool says SELL Bitcoin on COINBASE and BUY Bitcoin on BITFINEX at the same time...
+1 Reply
ReallyMe ReallyMe
@ReallyMe, typo: I meant "off by 5% - and that's a lot"
Reply
It will be a long winter... maybe...
Reply
ReallyMe, what do you think about xrp, icx and nano?
Reply
ReallyMe Sidney-CWB
@Sidney-CWB, I think in difficult crypto times like these, a lot of chaff will be separated from wheat.
Many alt coins will have a hard time to pass.
Judging just by the today's total markt cap

BTC: 116,743 Million USD
XRP: 23,201 Million USD (1/5 of BTC's)
NANO: 330 Million USD (1/354 of BTC's)
ICX : 271 Million USD (1/431 of BTC's)

you can make your own assessment of who has any chances of getting through.

No one knows for sure how it will be in the future, but from today's point of view it's all a game of probability, really.
+2 Reply
Sidney-CWB ReallyMe
@ReallyMe, ok, thank you very much!! Following...
Reply
Why the 125 and 205 out of curiosity?
+3 Reply
ReallyMe Goldcoast028
@Goldcoast028, that's a very good question. I found this combination works best for the BTC/USD pair. The numbers are just a rough approximation, like everything else in life, does golden proportion ring a bell? ;-)
+3 Reply
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