BTC: 8k to 8300 2nd bottom is your 2nd chance IN DEPTH ANALYSIS
Ok guys, let me get right to it.
After further research and consideration of price action coupled with historical MA and Tilson data, I do believe that 7300 may have actually been the local bottom... Look, I get it... I've been telling you that the correction is still not over, and I may have been wrong. I'm not ashamed of being wrong, any decent trader should be able to align themselves to the reality of what price is doing, and not towards what their biases are. I'm NOT going to tell you that we moon right here, because frankly there is still some consolidation left before any major parabolic action can be had.
BUT, good news is I think you can still get back in on the 'second bottom' if you missed the first. Based on a mix of moving averages and Tilson averages, I have tried to figure out the possible next moves for Bitcoin. Once again, I don't want you to FOMO buy just yet thinking you're about to miss the moon, because the best I can figure we still have a solid 2 months or so before I think we have any major breakouts to the upside.
The one big thing I want you to notice on the screenshot chart above is the flag pattern that has emerged based on a trend line from right around 3300 in Feb of 2019 extending out to 7300 showing the bottom of the flag, and 14k extending through 10300 (the local high) making the top of the flag (both violet colored tops and bottoms).
Now... I also threw in an aqua line extending from the very bottom of the Bitstamp price chart because it seems to have the longest historical price included from around 2013 for Bitcoin. From the bottom in 2013 to the 3300 outside candle in Feb of 2019, I extended that aqua line to show CRITICAL support for bitcoin. Meaning that trend line MUST be defended at all costs for any hope of a bull run.
MAJOR CAVEAT TO THE END OF CORRECTION: IF by any chance we EVER dip below that aqua line, SELL/SHORT immediately. You need to view that lines as basically the last stand. It's all good that 7300 may be the bottom, but only time and price action will prove it. Nothing is set in stone necessarily with Bitcoin. You need to watch that aqua line like a HAWK. Chances are we bounce from it if we ever get close to it. You're safe to buy above it. But if we should ever fall below it, sell as quickly as you can, and the picture dramatically changes at that point.
For now, I will go on the assumption that this is the potential of a bull run and price action will defend the bottom violet support line, at worst the aqua line and that 7300 was the bottom...
Here is what I expect price to do in the short to medium term (1-2 months). The main chart is showing our current situation on the left, and on the right split window is showing the price pattern after the 3k low in early 2019. Get to learning it, because these patterns repeat.
If you look at the main chart up top, I look for price to print some type of a bullish harmonic pattern and complete the 5 drive bearish pattern with a drop to anywhere in the 0.618 fib, right around 8400-8300 where there is really strong volume based support and pivot. Followed by another retest of the top trend line right around 9400 price range (which is showing the top end of resistance inside the flag.
From there, there is a high likelihood of a triple bottom back to the 8400/8300 region, WORST case scenario 8k which is the bottom trend line for the aqua line extending from the very bottom of Bitcoin in 2013 as described above. I put that in there because I know Bitcoin likes to mess with people making them think that we failed out of the violet flag and make traders assume that its full on bear season from there; thereby trapping shorts and catching them off guard. So I want you to be mindful of that.
In short, these are your buy/sell/pivot zones as they currently stand:
Your buy/long/pivot zones are around 8300-8400
Your short/sell zones are around 9400-9600.
IF we do hit around 8k, that will STILL be a strong buy from me, all the way down to 7800. I would conservatively set 7800 as your ultimate stop loss, if we hit that at any time its better to sell and re-examine than to try to ride it out.
What to expect:
I do expect a drop down to the 8700-8800 region to test the 0.5 fib retracement first with some consolidation following it. After the consolidation, look for a wick down to 8400-8300 which will be around the 0.618 fib, followed immediately by a strong buying pattern to the top of the flag, or near the 0.236 fib around the 9600-9400 fib to complete ABC on the harmonic, followed by yet another fall to likely set a triple bottom at around 8400, worst case scenario at around 8000 (break below violet line to aqua line) before continuing higher and exiting the pattern close to the end of this year.
If all is true, we should see parabolic buying start by the beginning of the year in 2020.
All of this is invalidated should price choose to fall and sustain price BELOW the aqua line in the main chart.
NOW START SAVING THEM DOLLARS AND ACCUMULATE LIKE MAD WHERE I TOLD YOU TO! You only have about 2 months or so before I think we start the next parabolic run...
After further research and consideration of price action coupled with historical MA and Tilson data, I do believe that 7300 may have actually been the local bottom... Look, I get it... I've been telling you that the correction is still not over, and I may have been wrong. I'm not ashamed of being wrong, any decent trader should be able to align themselves to the reality of what price is doing, and not towards what their biases are. I'm NOT going to tell you that we moon right here, because frankly there is still some consolidation left before any major parabolic action can be had.
BUT, good news is I think you can still get back in on the 'second bottom' if you missed the first. Based on a mix of moving averages and Tilson averages, I have tried to figure out the possible next moves for Bitcoin. Once again, I don't want you to FOMO buy just yet thinking you're about to miss the moon, because the best I can figure we still have a solid 2 months or so before I think we have any major breakouts to the upside.
The one big thing I want you to notice on the screenshot chart above is the flag pattern that has emerged based on a trend line from right around 3300 in Feb of 2019 extending out to 7300 showing the bottom of the flag, and 14k extending through 10300 (the local high) making the top of the flag (both violet colored tops and bottoms).
Now... I also threw in an aqua line extending from the very bottom of the Bitstamp price chart because it seems to have the longest historical price included from around 2013 for Bitcoin. From the bottom in 2013 to the 3300 outside candle in Feb of 2019, I extended that aqua line to show CRITICAL support for bitcoin. Meaning that trend line MUST be defended at all costs for any hope of a bull run.
MAJOR CAVEAT TO THE END OF CORRECTION: IF by any chance we EVER dip below that aqua line, SELL/SHORT immediately. You need to view that lines as basically the last stand. It's all good that 7300 may be the bottom, but only time and price action will prove it. Nothing is set in stone necessarily with Bitcoin. You need to watch that aqua line like a HAWK. Chances are we bounce from it if we ever get close to it. You're safe to buy above it. But if we should ever fall below it, sell as quickly as you can, and the picture dramatically changes at that point.
For now, I will go on the assumption that this is the potential of a bull run and price action will defend the bottom violet support line, at worst the aqua line and that 7300 was the bottom...
Here is what I expect price to do in the short to medium term (1-2 months). The main chart is showing our current situation on the left, and on the right split window is showing the price pattern after the 3k low in early 2019. Get to learning it, because these patterns repeat.
If you look at the main chart up top, I look for price to print some type of a bullish harmonic pattern and complete the 5 drive bearish pattern with a drop to anywhere in the 0.618 fib, right around 8400-8300 where there is really strong volume based support and pivot. Followed by another retest of the top trend line right around 9400 price range (which is showing the top end of resistance inside the flag.
From there, there is a high likelihood of a triple bottom back to the 8400/8300 region, WORST case scenario 8k which is the bottom trend line for the aqua line extending from the very bottom of Bitcoin in 2013 as described above. I put that in there because I know Bitcoin likes to mess with people making them think that we failed out of the violet flag and make traders assume that its full on bear season from there; thereby trapping shorts and catching them off guard. So I want you to be mindful of that.
In short, these are your buy/sell/pivot zones as they currently stand:
Your buy/long/pivot zones are around 8300-8400
Your short/sell zones are around 9400-9600.
IF we do hit around 8k, that will STILL be a strong buy from me, all the way down to 7800. I would conservatively set 7800 as your ultimate stop loss, if we hit that at any time its better to sell and re-examine than to try to ride it out.
What to expect:
I do expect a drop down to the 8700-8800 region to test the 0.5 fib retracement first with some consolidation following it. After the consolidation, look for a wick down to 8400-8300 which will be around the 0.618 fib, followed immediately by a strong buying pattern to the top of the flag, or near the 0.236 fib around the 9600-9400 fib to complete ABC on the harmonic, followed by yet another fall to likely set a triple bottom at around 8400, worst case scenario at around 8000 (break below violet line to aqua line) before continuing higher and exiting the pattern close to the end of this year.
If all is true, we should see parabolic buying start by the beginning of the year in 2020.
All of this is invalidated should price choose to fall and sustain price BELOW the aqua line in the main chart.
NOW START SAVING THEM DOLLARS AND ACCUMULATE LIKE MAD WHERE I TOLD YOU TO! You only have about 2 months or so before I think we start the next parabolic run...
Comment:
Guys, throw me a like and a comment if you liked this in-depth analysis or felt that it added to your understanding of where price may go. Or even if it just helped you confirm your chart or give you something to think about based on where you thought price would go.