Bitcoin Daily Update (day 325)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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*Weekly Chart*

Consensio: Experimenting with EMAs, have been backtesting and seeing some exciting results. S MA < P < M MA < L MA ( M MA right in line with top of bear channel

Patterns: Phase 7 hyperwave | Bear channel
Horizontals: R: $3,662 | S: $3,581
Trendline: Channel
Parabolic SAR: At $4,469
Futures Curve: Backwardation with 0.9% spread. Getting very close to re entering Contango.
BTCUSDSHORTS: Look at how well the weekly SAR’s have been working! Maybe it won’t pull back to ~21,000 like I thought.
Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.01%
TD’ Sequential: Weekly G2 = G1 | Daily G4 = G3
Ichimoku Cloud: Currently testing Tenkan-Sen for resistance.
Relative Strength Index: At 36
Average Directional Index: Very bearish . ADX at 38 with -DI > + DI
Price Action: 24h: -0.7% | 2w: +2.1% | 30d: -0.1%
Bollinger Bands: MA = $4,555
Stochastic Oscillator: Just made bullish cross. Watch for it to cross 20 to confirm.

Summary: There are a couple very bearish indicators and everything else is looking very bullish .

Bearish Indicators

9 Week EMA trending down and in confluence with top of bear channel .

Currently testing a bearish 50 day EMA .
Average Directional Index shows that we have just started another bear trend and have a long way to go (which is line with my perspective of not having capitulated and needing to return to P1)

Bullish Indicators

The most bullish indicator to me right now is the large cap alts. ETH just close a weekly candle above it’s bear channel (by < $2) and I strongly expect it to follow Litecoin’s lead. XRP has yet to make a move from horizontal support and when it does I think it will melt some faces.

If alts rally then BTC will too. That expectation is confirmed by the futures market being in backwardation and above the 2 week high. If this week breaks $3,729 then it will be a weekly green 2 above a green 1.

The weekly just made it’s first close above the 4 EMA in 2019.

The weekly Stochastic just made a bullish cross under 20 and is in confluence with the 3D (love seeing this).

I am longing here but I still kind of want everything to break down. This is the perfect recipe for capitulation: gets a bunch of bullish indicators / buy signals at the same time and then dump hard. If we do bounce from here then I expect it will only delay the inevitable.
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