After a tremendous run, BTC pulled back in May and has been consolidating ever since. Sentiment has been badly damaged as many newbs consider that the market drop was caused by a single Elon Musk tweet. For sure the tweet was expertly timed, however experienced analysts will have already noticed the TA was showing distribution occurring as well as multiple RSI bearish divergences for several weeks before the drop. In my opinion, the Elon tweet was merely the straw that broke the camels back.
Price appears to have found support just above the 30k level. Firing up my long term charts I noticed a few interesting trendlines which I had drawn some time ago.
First notice the green trendline on the Bitstamp weekly log chart. This green trendline started at the low back in March 2020 15 months ago.
We can also see that we are hovering at the confluence of the fib 23.6 level (as drawn from Sept 20 to now) and the Fib 38.2 level (as drawn from Mar 20 to now).
Also notice the 50 week MA is currently standing around 29k.
But that's not all. Take a look at this multi-year (non-log) chart....
The orange line shows the all-time trendline resistance - and we are now retesting that level as support. In technical analysis, the longer a trendline has been in play, the more likely it is to hold. This trendline has been in play since 2013!
So, I think providing that there are no major major bad news, or manipulation events, we've more or less found support.
Timeframe
After such large capitulation candles, it's unusual for price to bounce straight back up to all time highs. Investors are still licking their wounds and volume is low. There still could be one last capitulation candle, which I suspect would immediately wick back up again and signaling a nice bullish entry candle.
Price appears to have found support just above the 30k level. Firing up my long term charts I noticed a few interesting trendlines which I had drawn some time ago.
First notice the green trendline on the Bitstamp weekly log chart. This green trendline started at the low back in March 2020 15 months ago.
We can also see that we are hovering at the confluence of the fib 23.6 level (as drawn from Sept 20 to now) and the Fib 38.2 level (as drawn from Mar 20 to now).
Also notice the 50 week MA is currently standing around 29k.
But that's not all. Take a look at this multi-year (non-log) chart....
The orange line shows the all-time trendline resistance - and we are now retesting that level as support. In technical analysis, the longer a trendline has been in play, the more likely it is to hold. This trendline has been in play since 2013!
So, I think providing that there are no major major bad news, or manipulation events, we've more or less found support.
Timeframe
After such large capitulation candles, it's unusual for price to bounce straight back up to all time highs. Investors are still licking their wounds and volume is low. There still could be one last capitulation candle, which I suspect would immediately wick back up again and signaling a nice bullish entry candle.