Today BTC reached 7280(until now). everybody is panicking selling their alt coins. we are witnessing a history here, because alt coins are all going back to price in 2017 november, october. coins like GNT, SIA, and many other alt coins are riding a time machine to the past. now is a time to invest wisely, take profit fast when you could and not look back in greed. this can get worse and worse in august.
i would like to share my thoughts briefly in mid range term of BTC in August, and September.
in the below chart, is a weekly btc movement this year.
in every downturns, it got rejected at 21 ema weekly, and went all the way down to 60ema. now 60ema is 7282, which we just reached today. so we are typically in an area, that a MUST BOUNCE should come, even though it is short lived. because many people think 6.8k may be the last drop, but going under 60ema can be worse and 6.8k will be not a good support. last time in June, we witnessed that under 7.2 it will go straight to 6.8 and under. we had bounce at 7k before that, but that is when daily RSI was oversold and bears needed to recharge the indicators. we have gone under 6.8k so many times now, it is now new, it is not a huge support, it is really just a pass-road(Although when reached it will give a bounce and pretend like a support) then where to? 100ema, where 5k lies. testing 100ema in weekly, is really trying to figure out where the REAL bottom is for bitcoin. In June, it should have been tested, however, it bounced from 5.7k range which was just above 100ema. so logically, we are headed to 5k.
So I think if we go under 7.2 level too fast, it will eventually go 6.8, and even under in mid range term after small bounces and squeezes.
one thing is that we came to 60 ema just too fast! We were trading above 8k a week ago, and here we are, just in a week worrying about the long term downturn.
at the same time, we have to consider many other conditions like ETF announcement in September. It will happen on 21th Sep. Now, whales, definitely will use this to pumpt the price up. today is Aug3rd. bears have about one month and a half to go to 5k and bounce back.
HOWEVER, it is not that simple. we must think about the period of a bullish setup when we go below 6.8, which will bring so much gloomy sentiment to the market and sells, less participants. bulls know a setting up an environment for the bulls, will take a LONG TIME.
last time, when we went under 6k, come back up to 6.8, go down 5.8 come up, go down...it is all a setup, to clearly confirm the bottom was 5.7k. we were in a storm, but whales wanted to play this to make a huge move we witnessed. it took so long! the downturn cycle, started from May to mid July! so from this fact, we can get to a conclusion: it will take long time to make a bull setup if we go under 6.8k, because it should even test lower to 5k, which will take a very long time even more than MAY~JULY!
So, given the time the bears and bulls for about a month and a half, they would understand that, pushing too low would not be such a good idea to bring back btc above 8.5k levels before September 21th. the bears can be trapped in the lows too long, get exhausted, longs would lose confidence in the market.
at this point, hourly indicators tell that bounce should come, to cool off oversold situations. but daily macd is ugly, dmi is indicating a downturn will start. but weekly is trying make a golden cross, with monthly candle indicating a upward move. In so many mixed signals, we can see that in very short term we would see a bounce, but in daily standard downturn is still ongoing, but in weekly and monthly term, the dip would not be SO LOW as 5k.
So my hopes is this drop can end here or little lower, bounce, come back down, and really end at 6.8k around mid August. we should see boring sideways movement until.
i would like to share my thoughts briefly in mid range term of BTC in August, and September.
in the below chart, is a weekly btc movement this year.
in every downturns, it got rejected at 21 ema weekly, and went all the way down to 60ema. now 60ema is 7282, which we just reached today. so we are typically in an area, that a MUST BOUNCE should come, even though it is short lived. because many people think 6.8k may be the last drop, but going under 60ema can be worse and 6.8k will be not a good support. last time in June, we witnessed that under 7.2 it will go straight to 6.8 and under. we had bounce at 7k before that, but that is when daily RSI was oversold and bears needed to recharge the indicators. we have gone under 6.8k so many times now, it is now new, it is not a huge support, it is really just a pass-road(Although when reached it will give a bounce and pretend like a support) then where to? 100ema, where 5k lies. testing 100ema in weekly, is really trying to figure out where the REAL bottom is for bitcoin. In June, it should have been tested, however, it bounced from 5.7k range which was just above 100ema. so logically, we are headed to 5k.
So I think if we go under 7.2 level too fast, it will eventually go 6.8, and even under in mid range term after small bounces and squeezes.
one thing is that we came to 60 ema just too fast! We were trading above 8k a week ago, and here we are, just in a week worrying about the long term downturn.
at the same time, we have to consider many other conditions like ETF announcement in September. It will happen on 21th Sep. Now, whales, definitely will use this to pumpt the price up. today is Aug3rd. bears have about one month and a half to go to 5k and bounce back.
HOWEVER, it is not that simple. we must think about the period of a bullish setup when we go below 6.8, which will bring so much gloomy sentiment to the market and sells, less participants. bulls know a setting up an environment for the bulls, will take a LONG TIME.
last time, when we went under 6k, come back up to 6.8, go down 5.8 come up, go down...it is all a setup, to clearly confirm the bottom was 5.7k. we were in a storm, but whales wanted to play this to make a huge move we witnessed. it took so long! the downturn cycle, started from May to mid July! so from this fact, we can get to a conclusion: it will take long time to make a bull setup if we go under 6.8k, because it should even test lower to 5k, which will take a very long time even more than MAY~JULY!
So, given the time the bears and bulls for about a month and a half, they would understand that, pushing too low would not be such a good idea to bring back btc above 8.5k levels before September 21th. the bears can be trapped in the lows too long, get exhausted, longs would lose confidence in the market.
at this point, hourly indicators tell that bounce should come, to cool off oversold situations. but daily macd is ugly, dmi is indicating a downturn will start. but weekly is trying make a golden cross, with monthly candle indicating a upward move. In so many mixed signals, we can see that in very short term we would see a bounce, but in daily standard downturn is still ongoing, but in weekly and monthly term, the dip would not be SO LOW as 5k.
So my hopes is this drop can end here or little lower, bounce, come back down, and really end at 6.8k around mid August. we should see boring sideways movement until.
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