We have a double bottom at 5800 and a $600 pump to instill confidence in traders and spark a new hope for the bulls. We have also just touched the upper channel of the down trend inside the pitchfork, but haven't broken out yet.
Now, let's review the possibilities:
1. It can be a flat abc upwards correction (3-3-5 structure) as part of the large down trend with target already hit, so a move down and breaking 5800 for good will follow with bear targets 5450 and 5200 (red ABC down)
It could also become a bear flag. You can try to short with a stop-loss cautiously from the down channel's boundary.
Supporting factors:
- we have already touched the down channel and can slide down any time
- sync with the futures on monday implies a move down to 6000, retest of 5900
- we have no trend reversal confirmation yet. It's just a pump, although a bigger one.
- the new uptrend comes right after the Fundstrat news saying that breaking 6300 could mean a potential reversal in the long term. Seems too fishy, a tactics to lure some bulls.
- USDT double spending vulnerability just reported
- We've just made a yearly ATL (implying months of bear trend ahead), this puny double bottom is artificial, pure manipulation to stop the price from falling.
- overbought RSI H1, close to overbought RSI on H4
2. It can also be a truncated c in a blue WXY that has formed a true double bottom to complete the current move down. A new pumped up 5 wave move can be seen as a wave 1 of the up trend with target 7000.
Supporting factors:
- prev futures have expired, they are in profit and free to possibly go long and pump, but it doesn't quite make sense to pump secretly on a weekend. They could do it openly during weekdays to show strength. Perhaps the strict anti-manipulation of CME forbids that (Trading is stopped when a certain % spike is reached), however they managed to do it anyway with prev $1200 pump.
- long oversold RSI on D1
- double bottom
- a bounce up from RSI bands trend on D1
- a bounce from the major purple supply line
- we didn't hit the pitchfork's mean line => reversal of the prev swing is likely
- Inverted H&S
- breach of prev high pivot 6300
- a rise in 4.7 bln daily volume
- IOT, ETH, LTC, BCH are supporting the move
- EMA 100 support, EMAs starting to curve up
- could be a Wyckoff spring - we have just broken the yearly ATL on almost zero selling volume, no major sell-off.
- we have seen another $400 pump before and it went down. So, this time it makes sense to pump further up, because most traders will see a flat and expect another dump just like before.
- anything can happen in a dying exhausted market with low liquidity. Given enough resources on a margin, they can pump up or drop the price all the way down.
To confirm the up trend we need a golden cross EMA 50 x 200 on H4 (that's far far away). We already have one on M15 and the one on H1 may also be coming soon. On the last pump we had a H1 and H4 golden crosses. The EMA 50 can become support for the wave 3. Golden cross on H1 can give 4-8 days of general up trend direction, on H4 - up to a month.
You can buy from EMA support or on a breakout of the down channel on a strong candle with a stop-loss, but this could be an even shorter term up trend with a bull trap ahead.
3. It can't be a leading wedge because they have 5-3-5-3-5 structure. Nor it is an ending wedge because of the double bottom and direction (they are 3-3-3-3-3 and pointing down in wave c to end the move)
4. It can't be waves (1-2)-1 of an up trend because (1) clearly has only 3 waves.
5. It can't be a triangle - we're past that
Good Luck!
Not a financial advice. Use at your own risk.
Now, let's review the possibilities:
1. It can be a flat abc upwards correction (3-3-5 structure) as part of the large down trend with target already hit, so a move down and breaking 5800 for good will follow with bear targets 5450 and 5200 (red ABC down)
It could also become a bear flag. You can try to short with a stop-loss cautiously from the down channel's boundary.
Supporting factors:
- we have already touched the down channel and can slide down any time
- sync with the futures on monday implies a move down to 6000, retest of 5900
- we have no trend reversal confirmation yet. It's just a pump, although a bigger one.
- the new uptrend comes right after the Fundstrat news saying that breaking 6300 could mean a potential reversal in the long term. Seems too fishy, a tactics to lure some bulls.
- USDT double spending vulnerability just reported
- We've just made a yearly ATL (implying months of bear trend ahead), this puny double bottom is artificial, pure manipulation to stop the price from falling.
- overbought RSI H1, close to overbought RSI on H4
2. It can also be a truncated c in a blue WXY that has formed a true double bottom to complete the current move down. A new pumped up 5 wave move can be seen as a wave 1 of the up trend with target 7000.
Supporting factors:
- prev futures have expired, they are in profit and free to possibly go long and pump, but it doesn't quite make sense to pump secretly on a weekend. They could do it openly during weekdays to show strength. Perhaps the strict anti-manipulation of CME forbids that (Trading is stopped when a certain % spike is reached), however they managed to do it anyway with prev $1200 pump.
- long oversold RSI on D1
- double bottom
- a bounce up from RSI bands trend on D1
- a bounce from the major purple supply line
- we didn't hit the pitchfork's mean line => reversal of the prev swing is likely
- Inverted H&S
- breach of prev high pivot 6300
- a rise in 4.7 bln daily volume
- IOT, ETH, LTC, BCH are supporting the move
- EMA 100 support, EMAs starting to curve up
- could be a Wyckoff spring - we have just broken the yearly ATL on almost zero selling volume, no major sell-off.
- we have seen another $400 pump before and it went down. So, this time it makes sense to pump further up, because most traders will see a flat and expect another dump just like before.
- anything can happen in a dying exhausted market with low liquidity. Given enough resources on a margin, they can pump up or drop the price all the way down.
To confirm the up trend we need a golden cross EMA 50 x 200 on H4 (that's far far away). We already have one on M15 and the one on H1 may also be coming soon. On the last pump we had a H1 and H4 golden crosses. The EMA 50 can become support for the wave 3. Golden cross on H1 can give 4-8 days of general up trend direction, on H4 - up to a month.
You can buy from EMA support or on a breakout of the down channel on a strong candle with a stop-loss, but this could be an even shorter term up trend with a bull trap ahead.
3. It can't be a leading wedge because they have 5-3-5-3-5 structure. Nor it is an ending wedge because of the double bottom and direction (they are 3-3-3-3-3 and pointing down in wave c to end the move)
4. It can't be waves (1-2)-1 of an up trend because (1) clearly has only 3 waves.
5. It can't be a triangle - we're past that
Good Luck!
Not a financial advice. Use at your own risk.
Current 3-3-3 structure looks like a flat wxy upwards correction with abc of y being the last leg and going up to 6750 (161.8% of wave w) and a and c consisting of 5 waves each with wave 5 of wave c still due. After that we will likely move sideways and then drop to 6000 again and possibly continue the down trend.