purpurato59
Long

Descriptive bull runs

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
I just traced this using a log scale and Heiken Ashi candles. My purpose was to make an analysis of the great bull runs in bitcoin history. What I see
- Each succesive bullrun has started after the price stabilized on the previous peak.
- Every bullrun has been shorter than the previous one, around half the time.
- Retracements have been deeper everytime

Conclusions on the next bullrun:
- It will come after the price has stabilized around 1000
- It will be shorter than the previous one, something like a month
- It will be the same size in log terms, that is, it will go up to 5000
- It will retrace even harder, that is maybe even full retrace, back to 1000. The price seems to be less stable everytime.

Related Ideas

i made a somewhat similar prediction
A note-to-self copying some similarities from 2012 Nov halving
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Unfortunately MtGox data doesn't seem to be on TradingView anymore but I think the biggest bitcoin bull move was in 2011 when bitcoin rose from fractions of a dollar up to $32. The correction after that one was probably bigger than any seen here. It fell all the way back down to about $2 after that 2011 bubble.
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afbitcoins afbitcoins
Looking at an old copy of the data I think the same pattern applied to that one too though which was as you described, price stabilises at the rough price of the previous high before the next bubble really kicks off. Its an interesting idea, thanks for sharing
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Thanks for your comments.
I am working now with some other historical analysis ideas. My trades have been almost always technically determined, and I have no understanding of fundamentals behind this market. I believe it's way different than any other (stocks, commodities...) but surely there must be something to dig in and could be useful.
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