- Each succesive bullrun has started after the price stabilized on the previous peak.
- Every bullrun has been shorter than the previous one, around half the time.
- Retracements have been deeper everytime
Conclusions on the next bullrun:
- It will come after the price has stabilized around 1000
- It will be shorter than the previous one, something like a month
- It will be the same size in log terms, that is, it will go up to 5000
- It will retrace even harder, that is maybe even full retrace, back to 1000. The price seems to be less stable everytime.
I am working now with some other historical analysis ideas. My trades have been almost always technically determined, and I have no understanding of fundamentals behind this market. I believe it's way different than any other (stocks, commodities...) but surely there must be something to dig in and could be useful.