cI8DH

2018 crash worse than 2014, a simple comparison

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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This is a simple comparison, not taking into account volume , RSI , MA, Ichi cloud or any other fancy indicator.

The most distinguishing difference between the two periods are the two channels close to the down trend line . In 2014, a narrow channel acted as a support for several days (imagine poor traders waiting for breakout for such a long period of time) while in 2018, a slightly narrower channel has acted as a resistance. This simply shows that this market/"they" (see my previous half-baked theory about "they") is weaker now compared to then. If you note the Gann angles (note the pink line), we are crashing at a much higher rate than that of 2018. While it is possible that we break the log down trend line soon (as you can see in my previous magical overlay chart), such a scenario would be an optimistic one.

As you can see in the chart, we are about to touch this ominous trendline for the 4th time. In 2014, 4th try (after a dip) failed. It can fail now just as well. In that case, BTC will try it one more time, which if it succeeds to break out, it could potentially lead to a big bull trap as it did in 2014.

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I apologize if this idea confuses you. Confusion is the worst enemy of trade. I post these ideas for feedback not for teaching. I am not a technical analyst. I did not know what margin trading is 2 months ago neither did I know anything about technical analysis . I am saying this so you don't trade based on my ideas. If you are new to trading, it's best to listen to people with proven track record. I can recommend you to get advice from these people:

MarcPMarkets: conservative. near zero risk, a bit of reward
Cash-is-King: pragmatist. low risk, high reward
TheTrex: the artist. his charts don't lie
Giorgioversace: a big bear. gives you perspective mostly scary ones :D

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"I'm the of the charts, a , an , a , and I go by the name of !"
Comment: Just a reminder that this idea does not concern short term price actions.

Please like if you like. We, adults, are just old kids :D

Thanks :)
Comment: One possible scenario to breakout from the log down trendline (i.e. exiting the red channel upward) is to go sideways until exiting the channel. This is how it happened in 2014. Should it happen, expect a huge rally!
i like the simplicity of your analysis..!
Keep up the good work man!
+1 Reply
cI8DH capsule91
@capsule91, thanks a lot. A smart man's support means a lot to me :)
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When I try to draw the ominous trend line, it seems that it has already been broken on April 13th. Still no able to figure out how you drew it in a way that it is still unbroken...
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HiHow HiHow
@HiHow, never mind..just noticed you have used the log scale
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@HiHow, never use one scale alone. See this chart
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@HiHow, left is log, right is linear
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@HiHow, This is chart is from Bitstamp (the oldest exchange). It should also work for Bitmex. Even if it is broken in other exchanges, it should have just been tested and rejected.
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are u sayinng its gonna crash? or are you saying its not gonna?

sorry but you are not clear
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cI8DH ForexCryptoA
@ForexCryptoA, I am saying, most likely, we go down more. see the purple triangles in both charts. Those are channel's exits.
+1 Reply
cI8DH ForexCryptoA
@ForexCryptoA, after touching the channel's top, we will go down. I don't know when we will touch the channel's top.
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