While I do make my living trading (exclusively), I feel I should restate here that I do not profess to be a financial consultant or "an expert on , a expert." I do however, have *mad ninja skills* and it doesn't take a Satoshi Nakamoto to understand that when more and more large businesses adopt third party payment mechanisms (bitpay, coinbase etc.) via immediate to USD exchange mechanisms- it invariably equals increased sell pressure on the market.
I with you on the outlook, think very well-reasoned, and also where you've positioned the box. The only thing I'm not sure of is the level of downside b/w now and then -- by my estimates it will be lower, closer to 200 than 250ish. The reason being it's hard for me to see the daily & weekly level failing, and then only getting a 30-50btc downside out of that.
Nice charting all around though.