BTC - 38.2% Fib Level - Halvening to Push Price Past Resistance?
Quick update on BTC.
We are currently sitting on the 38.2% fib retracement from the 2018 highs, this area also coincides with overhead resistance in the form of an expanding wedge (i.e. the trend lines are like an inside out typical wedge pattern).
Should we get a strong weekly close above this area of resistance then the next major target would be the 50% retracement, where, surprise, surprise the last rally stalled at.
Should price move beyond the 61.8% retracement, then it is my belief that you could see a VERY fast move towards prior highs (potentially stalling at the 78.6% level).
The latest move off the spike lows (which i identified as such in my earlier piece), has been accompanied with strong supporting volume, this is a very strong sign that the move has some legs.
The driver of this move is likely two fold;
1) The SEVERE spike low to $3,800 due to margin calls (i expected a retest of these lows ON THE CONDITION that stocks also went belly up, this did not eventuate, therefore there was no external rush on dollars, instead there was a rapid short squeeze)
2) The halvening, this is clearly a massive driver of sentiment, i will take this chance to caution new comers to the space.
The halvening IS a major driver of price, but do not expect the price to reflect this on the day, in fact expect the media to call it a "nothing-burger" when the price does very little in the immediate time after the halvening takes place.
Yes the 2020 halvening will likely be different, but i would not be surprised to see a bit of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" after the halvening.
To sum up.
~ Look for a strong WEEKLY close above the 38.2% retracement to confirm this latest move higher.
~ The effect of the halvening is usually not felt immediately, be patient and don't let the media or pundits shake you out in the days/weeks following the halvening.
-TradingEdge
We are currently sitting on the 38.2% fib retracement from the 2018 highs, this area also coincides with overhead resistance in the form of an expanding wedge (i.e. the trend lines are like an inside out typical wedge pattern).
Should we get a strong weekly close above this area of resistance then the next major target would be the 50% retracement, where, surprise, surprise the last rally stalled at.
Should price move beyond the 61.8% retracement, then it is my belief that you could see a VERY fast move towards prior highs (potentially stalling at the 78.6% level).
The latest move off the spike lows (which i identified as such in my earlier piece), has been accompanied with strong supporting volume, this is a very strong sign that the move has some legs.
The driver of this move is likely two fold;
1) The SEVERE spike low to $3,800 due to margin calls (i expected a retest of these lows ON THE CONDITION that stocks also went belly up, this did not eventuate, therefore there was no external rush on dollars, instead there was a rapid short squeeze)
2) The halvening, this is clearly a massive driver of sentiment, i will take this chance to caution new comers to the space.
The halvening IS a major driver of price, but do not expect the price to reflect this on the day, in fact expect the media to call it a "nothing-burger" when the price does very little in the immediate time after the halvening takes place.
Yes the 2020 halvening will likely be different, but i would not be surprised to see a bit of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" after the halvening.
To sum up.
~ Look for a strong WEEKLY close above the 38.2% retracement to confirm this latest move higher.
~ The effect of the halvening is usually not felt immediately, be patient and don't let the media or pundits shake you out in the days/weeks following the halvening.
-TradingEdge