BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
: see below for further analysis. This trade failed largely due to my target being drawn from the wrong place, causing my t/p to be lower than it should have been. Charts have been posted below to illustrate.

The symmetrical triangle broke out to the down side with a completion that looks to be around $205. I've been expecting this level for a while and it also lands on top of a 2 week SCMR             support zone ; so we would expect a decent bullish retrace from that level. If the bearish volume dries up and we actually see a rally from $222 - $220 I'll be watching for the 'D' completion point on this bearish Gartley . My hopes aren't high for the Gartely, but best to keep all options on the table so we can have a plan in place.

If you're going to long off any rally, a Short position is advised to be opened at the 'D' completion point near $250.

If you're going to take the short trade now in play; T/P would be at or around $205 - $200, trailing stops or buy stops from there for the rebound. My position is short with a stop-loss at about $237.
So here is a shot of the original trade, bit closer in and chart cleaned up of all the other nonsense. I'm not sure how I managed to do this and then publish it without realizing the mistake, but that's why you should always revisit the trade.
ninjabenja ninjabenja
In this pic you can see how the trade should have been set up, and how just a small error can mean the difference between a winning trade or a losing trade.
ninjabenja ninjabenja
The measured move from the top of the triangle to the bottom is how you determine the T/P zone on the short. A parallel line is created from the first lowest touch of price action on the bottom of the triangle and should intersect the measured move copied to where the pattern broke out. If the measured move is not properly determined you can easily see how your target zone will be thrown off.
The Bearish Gartley has been invalidated by the violation of point 'A' by what would have been point 'C'. As a result I will not be factoring that pattern with regard to any bullish price action going forward.
DanLaffas ninjabenja
From the failed bearish Gartley, you could still achieve a bearish Cypher pattern as long as point C doesn't close lower than 1.414 of XA (break across is ok just not close across). Using your points (on finex) would give a point D target of around 247
ninjabenja DanLaffas
Very astute observation @DanLaffas. I actually finished drawing that in on my chart a few minutes ago. Conveniently it lines up perfectly with the symmetrical trianle trade we're currently involved in. However, I would caution traders that these advanced patterns are simply illustrating "levels to watch" until price makes them valid at the D point. That's where we take action. In this instance, as you've pointed out, there is the potential for a trade from C to D of the Cypher, then from D to T/P.
DanLaffas ninjabenja
Agree. I've been burnt recently trying to hop on the leg midway. Nothing is guaranteed in this game, just playing probabilities. We are still in a downtrend overall so I would be cautious with a conservative long and strict stop loss. Good luck to all.

And funnily enough (using finex again) if you take the 1.414 as the low and apply your fib extension from the 315 high to the anticipated ~203 low, you will see the 1.618 extension reach the much talked about 135 target zone.
ninjabenja DanLaffas
+1 ... you're making me do more work for this publication that I had planned :p
Here is what DanLaffas is referring to.

Cheat sheet for retracements, and the likely extensions you could see them yeild:

Retracement ..... Extension (target)
38.2% ..... 161.8% and beyond
50.0% ..... 138.2 to 161.8%
61.8% ..... 121.4 to 138.2%
78.6% ..... 100% to 121.4
+1 Reply
DanLaffas ninjabenja
LOL, I'll stop making you work now :)
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