Wyckoff method: Institutional BTC exit is currently happening
So the further and further down the rabbit hole I'm getting here folks, the more and more this is starting to look like we may actually need to keep those "little chance of happening" and "worst case" scenarios in my last idea not only viable, but frankly as a very high probability.
So as traders, we look at VERY different things than institutional investors do. And there is a HUGE divide between how they think, and how the average traders/investors like us think.
I've studied the Wyckoff method in detail earlier in my trading career, and frankly I've completely stopped thinking about it or applying it to my trades, with really bad repercussions to my trading portfolios at times. Especially this 40% pump dump that just happened. So I decided to do a crash course refresher on the Wyckoff method and what I just realized is that Bitcoin is in MAJOR trouble, so much so that I will tell you guys that according to the Wyckoff method of trading, this last pump up to 10.3k, was all of the major players EXITING Bitcoin and we are going to likely be experiencing major major major pain.
Not only does institutional re-accumulation not look like this, this was a blatant sign of very bad things to come. So much so that I am going to have to re-organize and try to figure out how low we go, not just where we simply bounce...
The Wyckoff model's strength is in determining the moves of INSTITUTIONAL TRADERS, and not at all about the small fish.
If you guys compare the current chart with the Wyckoff distribution and markdown cheat sheet below, you will immediately recognize that we are in trouble and about to start Phase E which is HEAVY selling.
imgur.com/a/U14q4Xt
One of the key aspects of recognizing institutional re-accumulation is that it is actually done at LOW VOLUMES. Yes, you read that right. Institutional accumulation is a background event. They don't want you to see their hands when they are accumulating so they can accumulate at lower prices. And this current situation is not one single bit a sign of re-accumulation. The high spike in price with crazy high volume is a sign that institutions have and are exiting Bitcoin . I expect them to try to squeeze every last little bit out of this "rally", but ultimately their hands have been shown and it is extremely worrying. They are about to trap a TON, and I mean a TON of longs here and they are going to liquidate the mess out of them.
This is going to be a major bull massacre the likes of which we haven't seen since the 6k drop guys. My face turned white when I recognized the predicament we are in. And it's bad... Not gonna sugar coat it.
At this point I can't even confidently tell you guys to that you should even attempt to buy at 8300, 8000, 7200 or even 6k. No doubt there will be some bounces at those key levels, but I'm frankly not sure if those levels will hold us. IF it does, there will be characteristics of the Institutions coming back in. But right at this moment, they have exited in DROVES guys. ***DROVES***!!!
Now let's take a look at what's happening in the local trading range using the Wyckoff method.
I personally felt that the SOW selling would go lower, but it has not. They are seemingly desperate to induce the rallies to dump off their supply.
Don't necessarily take into account the specific dates on this local chart, tune into the price structure. This is what I'm roughly expecting...
Winter is coming... And it will be harsh.
So as traders, we look at VERY different things than institutional investors do. And there is a HUGE divide between how they think, and how the average traders/investors like us think.
I've studied the Wyckoff method in detail earlier in my trading career, and frankly I've completely stopped thinking about it or applying it to my trades, with really bad repercussions to my trading portfolios at times. Especially this 40% pump dump that just happened. So I decided to do a crash course refresher on the Wyckoff method and what I just realized is that Bitcoin is in MAJOR trouble, so much so that I will tell you guys that according to the Wyckoff method of trading, this last pump up to 10.3k, was all of the major players EXITING Bitcoin and we are going to likely be experiencing major major major pain.
Not only does institutional re-accumulation not look like this, this was a blatant sign of very bad things to come. So much so that I am going to have to re-organize and try to figure out how low we go, not just where we simply bounce...
The Wyckoff model's strength is in determining the moves of INSTITUTIONAL TRADERS, and not at all about the small fish.
If you guys compare the current chart with the Wyckoff distribution and markdown cheat sheet below, you will immediately recognize that we are in trouble and about to start Phase E which is HEAVY selling.
imgur.com/a/U14q4Xt
One of the key aspects of recognizing institutional re-accumulation is that it is actually done at LOW VOLUMES. Yes, you read that right. Institutional accumulation is a background event. They don't want you to see their hands when they are accumulating so they can accumulate at lower prices. And this current situation is not one single bit a sign of re-accumulation. The high spike in price with crazy high volume is a sign that institutions have and are exiting Bitcoin . I expect them to try to squeeze every last little bit out of this "rally", but ultimately their hands have been shown and it is extremely worrying. They are about to trap a TON, and I mean a TON of longs here and they are going to liquidate the mess out of them.
This is going to be a major bull massacre the likes of which we haven't seen since the 6k drop guys. My face turned white when I recognized the predicament we are in. And it's bad... Not gonna sugar coat it.
At this point I can't even confidently tell you guys to that you should even attempt to buy at 8300, 8000, 7200 or even 6k. No doubt there will be some bounces at those key levels, but I'm frankly not sure if those levels will hold us. IF it does, there will be characteristics of the Institutions coming back in. But right at this moment, they have exited in DROVES guys. ***DROVES***!!!
Now let's take a look at what's happening in the local trading range using the Wyckoff method.
I personally felt that the SOW selling would go lower, but it has not. They are seemingly desperate to induce the rallies to dump off their supply.
Don't necessarily take into account the specific dates on this local chart, tune into the price structure. This is what I'm roughly expecting...
Winter is coming... And it will be harsh.
Comment:
Still favoring upthrust event in local price cycle:
The reason I'm short term bullish within this price structure is simply because I don't think that the Failed Upthrust within the Wyckoff trading phases has happened just yet. I do *expect* at least one more upthrust as I believe looking at the price structure, at least one has not been made yet.
On my short term position, I have been long since 9200, expecting somewhere in the 9700 range at least. That is where I will be taking profit from the long and initiating a short. We "could" in theory see anywhere from 9700 to around 10k IF (and only IF) I am correct about still being in Phase B of the Wyckoff range and looking for the upthrust.
I do have my SL set at 9100 in case I am wrong, and we are seeing LPSY playing out right before the MSOW.
IF that is the case, look for a bounce at around 8600 (MSOW) back up to 9k (LPSY in Phase E), and then initiate the short from there.