Pennygene took a small break and did not publish new trading ideas for some time. Another divergence appeared on the chart after the ATH update. As a consequence, there was no point in waiting for the growth. Therefore our margin positions have been closed since April 11. Since then, the only right decision was to wait. We expected a correction, but much earlier than it happened. Now on the chart, there is a deep but temporary and manipulative correction. We decided not to sell BTC because the entry point of our positions is much lower than the current price.
What to expect from the market now?
We still allow for the possibility of local lows around 25k or even possibly lower. Even though BTC has been consolidating in the 30k-43k price range for over 3 weeks now, the market is still undecided, and any short-term growth of 5-6% in a few hours still does not bring anything positive to the current BTC situation. A few days ago, on June 12, you could see that for yourself. Despite a lot of liquidity collected on June 8, BTC is still having a hard time remaining above the 36.7k level, showing that many buyers are not ready to buy the asset higher than that. All 'long' trading decisions made before the renewal of the local minimum near 30k or before the 43k price reached are too risky.
What are we going to do in either scenario?
(scenario 1) The price has fallen to 25k or lower. In this case, it is better to consider opening long positions. We will have to wait for a reversal structure and if you have available capital in USD, buy bitcoin on the spot. If there is no available USD left, you can open long BTC margin positions. The 21k-22k range is ideal for that.
(scenario 2) The price has settled above 41-43k. It means that the correction is very likely over, and BTC is waiting for a recovery. Such a correction gave enough opportunity and liquidity for BTC to reach the new ATH in the next few months. In case of an upside exit from the current consolidation range, we can also recommend spot buying BTC or margin long positions. Yes, in that case, the entry price is not as good as in the first scenario, but such buying is less risky than, for example, taking long positions from the current marks.
(scenario 3) Update local lows and formation of divergence.
If the 1D bar closes below 33.3k (a 33.3k-28k range), the RSI forms a lower value in the oversold area. This situation will form a bullish divergence, which could mean an imminent reversal and the end of the correction. You can use this opportunity to enter the market, but this scenario is riskier than 1st and 2nd. We consider it as the most probable one.
Should you sell BTC?
It depends on whether you are willing to wait out a correction and on your trading style. Short-term traders were selling in mid-April when this trading decision was backed up by a lot of divergences. If you have current spot positions now, we don't recommend selling.
What trading decisions are we making now?
We are preparing an available part of our capital to buy altcoins. Which, according to our statistics, will have more strong growth dynamics than BTC. These altcoins will outpace BTC's growth in percentage terms if they continue to grow.
What to expect from the market now?
We still allow for the possibility of local lows around 25k or even possibly lower. Even though BTC has been consolidating in the 30k-43k price range for over 3 weeks now, the market is still undecided, and any short-term growth of 5-6% in a few hours still does not bring anything positive to the current BTC situation. A few days ago, on June 12, you could see that for yourself. Despite a lot of liquidity collected on June 8, BTC is still having a hard time remaining above the 36.7k level, showing that many buyers are not ready to buy the asset higher than that. All 'long' trading decisions made before the renewal of the local minimum near 30k or before the 43k price reached are too risky.
What are we going to do in either scenario?
(scenario 1) The price has fallen to 25k or lower. In this case, it is better to consider opening long positions. We will have to wait for a reversal structure and if you have available capital in USD, buy bitcoin on the spot. If there is no available USD left, you can open long BTC margin positions. The 21k-22k range is ideal for that.
(scenario 2) The price has settled above 41-43k. It means that the correction is very likely over, and BTC is waiting for a recovery. Such a correction gave enough opportunity and liquidity for BTC to reach the new ATH in the next few months. In case of an upside exit from the current consolidation range, we can also recommend spot buying BTC or margin long positions. Yes, in that case, the entry price is not as good as in the first scenario, but such buying is less risky than, for example, taking long positions from the current marks.
(scenario 3) Update local lows and formation of divergence.
If the 1D bar closes below 33.3k (a 33.3k-28k range), the RSI forms a lower value in the oversold area. This situation will form a bullish divergence, which could mean an imminent reversal and the end of the correction. You can use this opportunity to enter the market, but this scenario is riskier than 1st and 2nd. We consider it as the most probable one.
Should you sell BTC?
It depends on whether you are willing to wait out a correction and on your trading style. Short-term traders were selling in mid-April when this trading decision was backed up by a lot of divergences. If you have current spot positions now, we don't recommend selling.
What trading decisions are we making now?
We are preparing an available part of our capital to buy altcoins. Which, according to our statistics, will have more strong growth dynamics than BTC. These altcoins will outpace BTC's growth in percentage terms if they continue to grow.