NickPadovani

BTCUSD- A Look at the Weekly Structure (Part I)

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Taking a look at the weekly chart, I've taken a moment to determine all of the critical support structures found within. As confirmed on my last chart, our current most support structure has been found around the 7200-7500 range. I've included the three hierarchical support structures as well, although only for observational purposes, as we've yet to ever break a preceding structure. Screaming bull run is fun and all, but I think people should work on climbing hills before they try to climb mountains.

Although we've broken sideways resistance on the daily chart (not pictured), we've yet to break sideways resistance on the weekly, and are in fact touching it at the time of this chart. Now it's very likely we'll see a break through this week or next, but a confirmation will give me more confidence than if I were to jump into the trade willy-nilly. IF we break out of the sideways resistance, we will be met with horizontal resistance at the 7200 dollar range, then likely the 7500 dollar range after some pull back. If you want live details, you can view my previous chart here:

I want you to remember that time and time again, top traders have repeatedly cried out that we have a double top here, or a double bottom there, or a head and shoulders at this point, etc. They have also continued to try and explain why "this is the end of our bear season, the bulls shall reign again", yet after four lower highs, we've been deceived. I want a 100,000 dollar BTC as much as the next guy, but we need to be realistic to preserve our capital. Stop worrying about missing out on a massive run, and take the steps necessary to keep your money, well, YOUR money. Your emotions want to see BTC flourish again, but the market doesn't have emotions, and you cannot let that blind you.

Would you like to truly trade safely? Then here's the best advice I can give:

1) Wait for sideways resistance breaks, a pull back to the outside of that resistance line, then enter your trade, as it will likely be impulsive from there. A break outside of a sideways line is indicative of a trend change, which is almost always followed by a short term pullback to trick people into exiting their trade.

2) Set realistic profit targets, and use historical data to do so. Each of my support structures on this chart have been derived from a .618 retracement point; notice that each point wicks a bit outside of the structure, but not enough to recklessly stay in a trade. For example, my immediate short term profit target will be 7200, and I don't care what happens outside of that. If it goes up to 7500, so be it, I missed out on a few percent. There is a strong chance that this run WILL wick outside of the 7500 dollar region, and it'll probably go somewhere around the 7800 zone, but I'll let the greedy chase those profits.

3) Set smart stop losses- Trading becomes incredibly easy once you employee smart money management strategies, and you have stop losses to protect your assets. Now it's worth noting that your stop losses need to be placed logically; you cannot expect your stop loss to work properly if it isn't set up properly. As per the daily chart, for example, I intend to open my long at 6730, and profit take at 7200. Otherwise, I will be opening a short at 6600, and I will re-enter at 6150, possibly lower depending on how the price moves. Either way, both positions have around a 1.50% stop loss, and although that is tight, it's based around the support structure we're currently trading in. If the trade goes unfavorably, this will protect me from any unnecessary losses.

Anyways, I'm going to wrap this up, as I'm currently watching the bloodbath that is ensuing ;)


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