BTC Big Picture - Long term trend reversal or fake breakout?

Looks like we are finally challenging the long term downtrend from 2018. As I see it, the longer we stay above ~$9625 the stronger a confirmation signal it is. BTC doesn't need to break upwards now to prove anything, in fact it would be better if it just holds support around this area. If it breaks upward too strong and gets rejected at 10k (again), it might send it crashing down again and with November being the US election anything can happen. Thoughts?