So guys, we need to do some math because sometimes is powerfull.
Since Bitcoin's born we have had 2 blow-off:
- 2013 > x500 from previous low
- 2018 > x200 from previous low
If we consider 69k as current ath and assume to repeat the same bear market, we could have:
1) -70% fast as we have experiencing
2) -50% more slow
Ok, now we could have an end of bear market, but...
How and when to resume from this low?
If we apply same ratio of precedent cycles, i can't find no number to make a comparation.
Imo it's very hard (but not impossibile, 10y of life are very few) that we are in a bear market, and assuming a decreasing of multiply factor (to find the new ath) of 2,5:
- from 500x to 200x we have a 2,5x of decreasing
- if we apply this to 200x, we could have a 80x to reach a new ath in this cycle
- from the previous low around 4k, we could have 320k.
If we follow math these are number to keep on eye, but market follow emotions...and now we are in a scary market conditions.
Since Bitcoin's born we have had 2 blow-off:
- 2013 > x500 from previous low
- 2018 > x200 from previous low
If we consider 69k as current ath and assume to repeat the same bear market, we could have:
1) -70% fast as we have experiencing
2) -50% more slow
Ok, now we could have an end of bear market, but...
How and when to resume from this low?
If we apply same ratio of precedent cycles, i can't find no number to make a comparation.
Imo it's very hard (but not impossibile, 10y of life are very few) that we are in a bear market, and assuming a decreasing of multiply factor (to find the new ath) of 2,5:
- from 500x to 200x we have a 2,5x of decreasing
- if we apply this to 200x, we could have a 80x to reach a new ath in this cycle
- from the previous low around 4k, we could have 320k.
If we follow math these are number to keep on eye, but market follow emotions...and now we are in a scary market conditions.
