The BTC bear market has been a long one over a year now since I last charted it, but once again it has caught my eye as targets have been hit!
I have been trading both markets traditional and crypto for six years now, tried multiple charting patterns and trading techniques and have done a full circle.
I have seen charts with indicators leading and lagging splashed all over them pointless trend lines crossing over one level to another in hope of a pattern formation to appease the traders biases. The strike rate of these indicators and charting patterns if put through a "historical" stress test 9/10 would disagree with each other over time, so why chart the noise I ask traders?. This is why 90% or so of traders fail by trading emotion I my self am guilty of this!
From my observations and also falling for this myself as I started out is following heard mentality if one guru post a fancy complicated chart such as Elliott wave principle, the heard all want to chart elliot waves because it looks "kool" or play with W.D. Gann angles and create biases in an echo chamber.
I have observed over the years after scanning thousands of charts that a market trades in levels from on level to another, pretty dam obvious aye up, down or range bound it sounds to simple. The market doesn't think to its self hey I am going to follow the Elliot wave principle for this cycle starting from this date till this date and that is how its going to play out end of story!. The later sounds stupid right so why make it complicated?
Okay traders keep it stupid simple under standing "price" (the price is pure) the market prints a new price as the market trades from one level to another in all timeframes based on supply and demand as traders battle it out this is determined by the bid and offer of participants trading that particular market. Under standing the dynamics of supply vs demand is the most powerful tool in the bag, as the traders battle it out and the point of control (POC) is broken the chart can then move from one level to another be it the supply zone or demand zone. So how does a trader know what direction to trade, the answer is they don't! no one knows the closing price ahead of time unless you are that last traded price that bought out all the supply within the market!.
You are then the point of control along with all other traders at that "price" and the direction of price would be the path of least resistance are you selling into demand or supply that is the million dollar question.
This is how participants of the market make the "price" it wasn't made by elliot
Your job as a trader should be trading one level to another, knowing when to get in and when to get out. Your goal should be to trade the path of least resistance (the trend)
you can trade against the trend or with it (a range bound trade) but you should be aware of the supply and demand zones that can be identified as support and resistance.
This is trading 101, you don't need to pay thousands on some guru claiming they know the future!.
"Price is pure"
So now with that knowledge look at my clean as f*** chart, look at that sweet historical data of past trades see how many participants traded that particular price and look at the range ask your self this simple question "is this fair value should I buy or should I sell" the market looks for trapped traders that is the game don't get caught holding the bag.
So you got this far, I see the path of least resistance down I give that more probability based on the above.
I'll be wrong once supply is reached. (This is a zoomed out monthly chart, trade the close)
Happy trading traders Merry Christmas and a happy new year!
I have been trading both markets traditional and crypto for six years now, tried multiple charting patterns and trading techniques and have done a full circle.
I have seen charts with indicators leading and lagging splashed all over them pointless trend lines crossing over one level to another in hope of a pattern formation to appease the traders biases. The strike rate of these indicators and charting patterns if put through a "historical" stress test 9/10 would disagree with each other over time, so why chart the noise I ask traders?. This is why 90% or so of traders fail by trading emotion I my self am guilty of this!
From my observations and also falling for this myself as I started out is following heard mentality if one guru post a fancy complicated chart such as Elliott wave principle, the heard all want to chart elliot waves because it looks "kool" or play with W.D. Gann angles and create biases in an echo chamber.
I have observed over the years after scanning thousands of charts that a market trades in levels from on level to another, pretty dam obvious aye up, down or range bound it sounds to simple. The market doesn't think to its self hey I am going to follow the Elliot wave principle for this cycle starting from this date till this date and that is how its going to play out end of story!. The later sounds stupid right so why make it complicated?
Okay traders keep it stupid simple under standing "price" (the price is pure) the market prints a new price as the market trades from one level to another in all timeframes based on supply and demand as traders battle it out this is determined by the bid and offer of participants trading that particular market. Under standing the dynamics of supply vs demand is the most powerful tool in the bag, as the traders battle it out and the point of control (POC) is broken the chart can then move from one level to another be it the supply zone or demand zone. So how does a trader know what direction to trade, the answer is they don't! no one knows the closing price ahead of time unless you are that last traded price that bought out all the supply within the market!.
You are then the point of control along with all other traders at that "price" and the direction of price would be the path of least resistance are you selling into demand or supply that is the million dollar question.
This is how participants of the market make the "price" it wasn't made by elliot
Your job as a trader should be trading one level to another, knowing when to get in and when to get out. Your goal should be to trade the path of least resistance (the trend)
you can trade against the trend or with it (a range bound trade) but you should be aware of the supply and demand zones that can be identified as support and resistance.
This is trading 101, you don't need to pay thousands on some guru claiming they know the future!.
"Price is pure"
So now with that knowledge look at my clean as f*** chart, look at that sweet historical data of past trades see how many participants traded that particular price and look at the range ask your self this simple question "is this fair value should I buy or should I sell" the market looks for trapped traders that is the game don't get caught holding the bag.
So you got this far, I see the path of least resistance down I give that more probability based on the above.
I'll be wrong once supply is reached. (This is a zoomed out monthly chart, trade the close)
Happy trading traders Merry Christmas and a happy new year!
Comment:
PS I don't hate on indicators they are just another tool than can be layered to create a greater probability, the best way to do this is "layering" for example when one or more agree with each other this creates a greater probability.
Comment:
Looks like BTC took the path of most resistance, if the monthly doesn't close above the supply zone I see this as a bull trap. If the supply zone holds we may see a short squeeze.
Comment:
Supply zone has held and a monthly candle close, short squeezed to $24000, BTC has broken the down trend on the 200D MA.
This is now a strong trend reversal conformation BTC is out of the bear trend and entered a range.
This is now a strong trend reversal conformation BTC is out of the bear trend and entered a range.