Previously I had similar idea - linked in related ideas in which I had proposed exit and buy back target, the 30% chance that the bull market can continue is now 10% after the bounce to the top happened again for an ATH.
In this model:
*Dates are updated,
*the narrowing price channel is updated
*fibonacci retracements are shown instead of fibonacci extensions. 2 are placed at beginning (0) and ending (1) of bullish impulses. Two coinciding impulses are shown with different onsets but same ending dates.
#date lines#
Dashed: actual historical within 1 week (due to 3D chart could only be so precise)
Dotted: projected dates
Left to right:
%Purple% is subjective (best time I would have liked to buy). It is not necessarily highest IRR entry point but it is the highest ROI entry point. Highest IRR (fastest growth periods are closer to the halving.
%True blue% is halvenings
%Red% is ATH
The fibonacci retracements indicate likely retrace points in the downward phase of the cycle. They are drawn as retracement of the waves going up. (two waves are shown. One is purple to red, the other is blue to red. For reference you may scroll left or view in different magnification to see the explanatory power of fibonacci retracements in the 2011-2015 cycles as well - not shown in image but included in chart.
Finally a red and green arrow with a projection range serves as a visual aid to depict imprecise downward and upward movements.
P(9-12k at least once before Jan 30)= 20% (BTC loves 'black swans like March 2020)
P(12-18k at least once before Jan 30)= 51%
P(18k-20k at least once before Jan 30) = 65%
P(20-30k will be visited at least once before Jan 30)= 78%
In this model:
*Dates are updated,
*the narrowing price channel is updated
*fibonacci retracements are shown instead of fibonacci extensions. 2 are placed at beginning (0) and ending (1) of bullish impulses. Two coinciding impulses are shown with different onsets but same ending dates.
#date lines#
Dashed: actual historical within 1 week (due to 3D chart could only be so precise)
Dotted: projected dates
Left to right:
%Purple% is subjective (best time I would have liked to buy). It is not necessarily highest IRR entry point but it is the highest ROI entry point. Highest IRR (fastest growth periods are closer to the halving.
%True blue% is halvenings
%Red% is ATH
The fibonacci retracements indicate likely retrace points in the downward phase of the cycle. They are drawn as retracement of the waves going up. (two waves are shown. One is purple to red, the other is blue to red. For reference you may scroll left or view in different magnification to see the explanatory power of fibonacci retracements in the 2011-2015 cycles as well - not shown in image but included in chart.
Finally a red and green arrow with a projection range serves as a visual aid to depict imprecise downward and upward movements.
P(9-12k at least once before Jan 30)= 20% (BTC loves 'black swans like March 2020)
P(12-18k at least once before Jan 30)= 51%
P(18k-20k at least once before Jan 30) = 65%
P(20-30k will be visited at least once before Jan 30)= 78%