What follows are my thoughts on BTC price action. I'm trying to objectively look at the charts on the larger time frames.
Bear in mind this is done with my current skill set, with that said this is what I see:
1) Symmetrical triangle (ST) of higher lows and lower highs, which indicates continuation 75% of the time. Continuation in this case would be bullish, as it takes us back to the start of the pattern.
2) Diminishing volume. The declining volume everyone has been talking about actually supports the ST. We want to see declining volume, and increasing volume on the breakout. More on that later. MACD and RSI are forming higher lows to match the price action.
3) We had an unsuccessful breakout of the ST. The push was rejected before 10k, this was characterised by the still declining volume on breakout. However from what I have read this doesn't automatically invalidate the ST.
4) The unsuccessful breakout can form a cradle, before things move back up. Or, and more likely, we are still in the triangle, and traders can redraw the ST to encompass the current price. This is supported with the continued lower volume.
5) For the actual breakout to be confirmed (either bull or bear) we will see the volume increase sharply. That alongside a price break, will signify the end of the ST. We currently don't have that, suggesting we are still in the ST.
@remigoomba has drawn a similar ST pattern on the weekly and he integrates his knowledge of BBands: twitter.com/RemiG_G/.../1000378305994985477 …
@Imperator_Deus also emphasises the bottom trend line of higher lows: twitter.com/Imperato...s/999084075917959168 …
On the other hand @technical_anal has made an excellent case for a complete breakdown twitter.com/technica...s/998901984907415552 …
As well as that I can't help but feel there is a certain resentment towards overly bullish people in the space. A feeling they need to be punished for their arrogance Which is a fair criticism, some of the 'short it if you dare Gates' statements were ridiculous and disrespectful to traditional financial markets. Many of those same people have been shown up as frauds in this bear market.
In the end neither irrationally bullish or irrationally bearish statements hold much value, we should aim to provide a rational analysis wherever possible. Hopefully that's what I've done here.
These are my thoughts, have a good day.
Bear in mind this is done with my current skill set, with that said this is what I see:
1) Symmetrical triangle (ST) of higher lows and lower highs, which indicates continuation 75% of the time. Continuation in this case would be bullish, as it takes us back to the start of the pattern.
2) Diminishing volume. The declining volume everyone has been talking about actually supports the ST. We want to see declining volume, and increasing volume on the breakout. More on that later. MACD and RSI are forming higher lows to match the price action.
3) We had an unsuccessful breakout of the ST. The push was rejected before 10k, this was characterised by the still declining volume on breakout. However from what I have read this doesn't automatically invalidate the ST.
4) The unsuccessful breakout can form a cradle, before things move back up. Or, and more likely, we are still in the triangle, and traders can redraw the ST to encompass the current price. This is supported with the continued lower volume.
5) For the actual breakout to be confirmed (either bull or bear) we will see the volume increase sharply. That alongside a price break, will signify the end of the ST. We currently don't have that, suggesting we are still in the ST.
@remigoomba has drawn a similar ST pattern on the weekly and he integrates his knowledge of BBands: twitter.com/RemiG_G/.../1000378305994985477 …
@Imperator_Deus also emphasises the bottom trend line of higher lows: twitter.com/Imperato...s/999084075917959168 …
On the other hand @technical_anal has made an excellent case for a complete breakdown twitter.com/technica...s/998901984907415552 …
As well as that I can't help but feel there is a certain resentment towards overly bullish people in the space. A feeling they need to be punished for their arrogance Which is a fair criticism, some of the 'short it if you dare Gates' statements were ridiculous and disrespectful to traditional financial markets. Many of those same people have been shown up as frauds in this bear market.
In the end neither irrationally bullish or irrationally bearish statements hold much value, we should aim to provide a rational analysis wherever possible. Hopefully that's what I've done here.
These are my thoughts, have a good day.
Image 1) We touched a large historical support area which is present on the weekly chart.
Image 2) We are forming clear bullish divergences on the 4H.