BTC price action has been mind numbingly slow recently and consolidating in ever narrowing range. The Bollinger band width (BBW) is at recent lows. Previously when it hit these levels there was very big moves in either direction. Yet, BBW can even go lower to pre April 1st 2019 levels. So in the most extreme case, if we fit longest possible triangle to the price action and take 75% of it's length as a point of break out, the estimated breakout time will be the 8th of July.
Another approach is to consider the length of previous consolidation periods. Roughly the average period length of four identified consolidation periods is 30 days. The longest consolidation period was about 50 days, pre-November 2018 dump to 3k. The current consolidation period is longer than the average of 30 days now 34 days. Assuming that it will reach 50 days it will give the same estimate of July 8th for the breakout.
Another approach is BVOL24, fitting the data in a triangle and taking 75% will give the breakout date On July 1st.
In conclusion, according to these measurement techniques BTC has roughly two more weeks of consolidation. Boring.
Another approach is to consider the length of previous consolidation periods. Roughly the average period length of four identified consolidation periods is 30 days. The longest consolidation period was about 50 days, pre-November 2018 dump to 3k. The current consolidation period is longer than the average of 30 days now 34 days. Assuming that it will reach 50 days it will give the same estimate of July 8th for the breakout.
Another approach is BVOL24, fitting the data in a triangle and taking 75% will give the breakout date On July 1st.
In conclusion, according to these measurement techniques BTC has roughly two more weeks of consolidation. Boring.
