BTC is still going to 4k, no one changed my mind. READ ALL OF IT
Wait Sherem... how can you be long but still think BTC is going to 4k!? I use a martingale strategy to MITIGATE the risk because I take the BIG picture into consideration. Let me lay it out for. why I am doing that.
First. A message for the HATERS. I have been called Naive, delusional, a thief, I have been told that I don't "do TA'. But guess what?! My analysis has done a REALLY good job, over and OVER again calling the tops and the bottoms and laying out strategies. The first step of my 4k call was going from BTC 8.5k to the 7k AREA. LOOK WHERE WE ARE NOW. WHAT DO YOU KNOW?! Then my NEXT arrow has it goign to this 8.5k area. MY LAST 4k POST LAID THIS OUT almost exactly.
You know I was getting grief when I was calling the 11k double top and the same when I was calling the 6k BOTTOM. Would it make you feel better if I put a "magical rocket" saying we are going to 10k eventually? Look, I call it like I see it. I was spot on here:
and here:
and here:
But you have only ever been bearish! No, no I haven't. Right here too:
For my loyal followers: BTC has really been showing signs of life that our move to this 8.5k area is coming. Before I get into why I think BTC is going to 4k during summer. Let me add this major CAVEAT. Depending on how BTC reacts once we get a push up to this 8.5k-9k area will determine whether we go to 4k or not. THIS could mean it goes higher. That's not to say it won't get a pull back before it does, but you HAVE to get some type of push HIGHER then the previous HIGH at 10k for BTC to really signal it's going to MOON.
HOWEVER at this point i still believe BTC is still going to 4k this summer or maybe sooner. I can't decide. Let me break it down on WHY I think that. This first requires looking at the major time frames.
1. We have just been creating lower high's ever since December and we have created this MASSIVE imperfect descending triangle type pattern. if you look at the psychology of price pattern, even though imperfect, it still has the same effect of creating lower highs. Yet, have a price floor around this 6.5k area. Take a look at the chart I posted.
2. Weekly MACD is going down and almost in negative territory!
3. BTC Searches are at all time lows. This is crucial. g.co/trends/TaSWJ Click the link and look at the chart. You might be thinking this is really basic and you are right. You don't need a fancy indicator to tell you that EVERYONE piled in and was all about crypto from roughly Nov-Dec. People were dumping in their life savings, mortgaging houses, it was crazy! Now why is this important as traders? Because most people don't look at charts every day, they look at them periodically and just SEE the Lower highs, which will cause them to slowly realize the reality that BTC IS NOT going to moon. No matter how many charts with rockets on them saying BTC to 10k. and look if it happens, GREAT! I will be making. But if you are basing your trading decisions on hopes and dreams of BTC going to 10k with a WEEKLY MACD sloping down, you got issues
First. A message for the HATERS. I have been called Naive, delusional, a thief, I have been told that I don't "do TA'. But guess what?! My analysis has done a REALLY good job, over and OVER again calling the tops and the bottoms and laying out strategies. The first step of my 4k call was going from BTC 8.5k to the 7k AREA. LOOK WHERE WE ARE NOW. WHAT DO YOU KNOW?! Then my NEXT arrow has it goign to this 8.5k area. MY LAST 4k POST LAID THIS OUT almost exactly.
For my loyal followers: BTC has really been showing signs of life that our move to this 8.5k area is coming. Before I get into why I think BTC is going to 4k during summer. Let me add this major CAVEAT. Depending on how BTC reacts once we get a push up to this 8.5k-9k area will determine whether we go to 4k or not. THIS could mean it goes higher. That's not to say it won't get a pull back before it does, but you HAVE to get some type of push HIGHER then the previous HIGH at 10k for BTC to really signal it's going to MOON.
HOWEVER at this point i still believe BTC is still going to 4k this summer or maybe sooner. I can't decide. Let me break it down on WHY I think that. This first requires looking at the major time frames.
1. We have just been creating lower high's ever since December and we have created this MASSIVE imperfect descending triangle type pattern. if you look at the psychology of price pattern, even though imperfect, it still has the same effect of creating lower highs. Yet, have a price floor around this 6.5k area. Take a look at the chart I posted.
2. Weekly MACD is going down and almost in negative territory!
3. BTC Searches are at all time lows. This is crucial. g.co/trends/TaSWJ Click the link and look at the chart. You might be thinking this is really basic and you are right. You don't need a fancy indicator to tell you that EVERYONE piled in and was all about crypto from roughly Nov-Dec. People were dumping in their life savings, mortgaging houses, it was crazy! Now why is this important as traders? Because most people don't look at charts every day, they look at them periodically and just SEE the Lower highs, which will cause them to slowly realize the reality that BTC IS NOT going to moon. No matter how many charts with rockets on them saying BTC to 10k. and look if it happens, GREAT! I will be making. But if you are basing your trading decisions on hopes and dreams of BTC going to 10k with a WEEKLY MACD sloping down, you got issues
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Little more detail on my long position -
Please let me know if my trading ideas have supported you with that like button
Please let me know if my trading ideas have supported you with that like button
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bear flag is holding strong so far.
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bull flag rather....
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We are testing the bottom of this bull flag. Whether this holds or goes down from here to 6500 before a move up or break and go to 4k. We are prepared with martingale buys laddered down for any scenario.
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The question begs do we move up from here, or go down more? Here is my answer. The short term is that it doesn't matter a whole lot with the strategy I am using. I am in the market now and I have another buy down in this area and further down from that. My strategy is to ladder buys so if the market does decrease, my average price will be brought down. In a precarious market like this I think it's prudent to have a mid-term strategy that you can utilize.
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If anyone is looking for more detail with how I trade with my martingale strategy, I did a write up on it -
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If we zoom out to this daily chart we can see that this MACD is just itching to cross to the upside.
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Daily chart is almost about to cross up and if we zoom in things are looking good for a trade to the upside. It's almost worth going in heavier if we get a break or even going in more now and putting a tight stop on it. Your call.
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We're knocking on these breakout levels, get ready for a pop if we break up
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We have been seeing a lot of whip saw action lately. BTC broke this down trend line, is it going down now or just ratifying more of a larger inverse head and shoulder pattern?
I really prefer the martingale strategy in scenarios like this, I don't need to stress on the immediate outcome of where BTC is going, but can be more objective. My next laddered buy is at the 6,600 area.
I really prefer the martingale strategy in scenarios like this, I don't need to stress on the immediate outcome of where BTC is going, but can be more objective. My next laddered buy is at the 6,600 area.
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You should be in this anywhere between 7100 (at that support point I identified) or entered on the break, the retrace, lots of places you could have entered. I hope you did.
We have done everything but fully confirm a move to the upside at this point. Daily MACD is getting ready to cross and once we break this $7,700 level we have room to run with no resistance up to $8,000.
Ultimately we are targetting this 8500 zone. Keep in mind it could go to 9k and risk increases as we start getting in this area for a move down. This area is the area we want to get out with at least half and put a stop loss on the rest. If it keeps going up it after we have already gotten out, that's fine. It will confirm a further move to the upside and allow us to look for a new entry point.
We have done everything but fully confirm a move to the upside at this point. Daily MACD is getting ready to cross and once we break this $7,700 level we have room to run with no resistance up to $8,000.
Ultimately we are targetting this 8500 zone. Keep in mind it could go to 9k and risk increases as we start getting in this area for a move down. This area is the area we want to get out with at least half and put a stop loss on the rest. If it keeps going up it after we have already gotten out, that's fine. It will confirm a further move to the upside and allow us to look for a new entry point.
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Solid breakout of this 7700 level and we are coming back to retest this 7600-7700 area, this area should hold up as support before we get the move up to 8k.
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chart update, moving to a new thread -
This website is cool - whalereports.com/cry...aily-inflow-outflow/
It goes over how money has been flowing out of crypto and we are in this downward type pattern/mid range. The critical thing to notice on here is we have a similar pattern LOWER HIGHS. But what is perhaps most intriguing is we have a LOWER LOWER indicating more money flowed out when we hit this last 6k mark. Guess what happens if we have a similar outflow? Yeah. BTC 4k.
5. Previous bear market. It lasted 2 years give or take. Yes, things are changing rapidly, but you know what isn't? human emotion. Everything cycles, it's just the way it is.
And listen before you toot your horn in the comments and say "Sherem you just want BTC to go to 4k, this isn't TA. Look, I don't "want" btc to go to 4k. I really don't care where it goes, all I care about is making money off of it. I think i have laid out a pretty good case for the POTENTIAL of it going to 4k.
With all of that being said, I TRADE IT. I think we are going to get a push up first before we go to 4k. Here is why:
1. RSI IS OVERSOLD on all the smaller time frames. What's critical is we are JUST NOW getting into oversol territroy on the daily.
2. MACD is telling the same thing.
3. MASSIVE SUPPORT at this 6.5k-7k area
I will be looking for a bounce up to this 8.5k area. FROM THAT POINT. If it continues moving up, it means we are going much higher and we will be in GREAT position. However, if it starts coming down off those areas instead of brekaing through. the PROBABILITY that we will be going down to 4k increases a LOT.
Look, I am TRADING this with the idea in mind that IT COULD go to 4k before it rebounds. Because of that I will be MANAGING my RISK accordingly by using a MARTINGALE strategy. But what if it NEVER goes to 4k? I am in the market and I am making money. I have a game plan for what happens if it does.The market is unpredictable and it's IMPERATIVE that you manage your risk accordingly in situations like this.
Best of luck and happy trading.
-Sherem