Essentially this is an action-reaction process. Looking at the March-April time period the Bitcoin price fell below the (most or all of one candle body) for 17 days.
During May and June the Bitcoin price rose above the for 20 days.
Bitcoin price now has fallen below . If similar to past two instances where price rose above or fell below , then Bitcoin will stay below channels for 17-20 days.
Price fell below on 7-27-14 so price could stay below until 8-15-14 or so.
At this point, would not worry too much about up and down price swings. In other words, don't get sucked into buying just because of a $50-60 price swing. Wait for move lower to play out.
We could take out $500 and $400 both and get close to $360. This is based on two things:
1) Looking at the last time Bitcoin price moved above Keltner Channels and how far the move was from where most of a candle body was above channels to the high point. If the break below the channels is similar then you're talking about moving from $570 (first candle body low price below channels) minus $200 (size of last move up) = $370.
2) On my Point and Figure chart (not shown) there is a valid downside target of $360. So, it wouldn't be surprising if $360 is hit or a number within $5 to $10 of it on either side.
My man :) Yes, this is going to be the sad truth soon. We have a 1-day downtrend against us. Last time that happened was around:
December 18, 2013
February 7, 2014
March 20, 2014
April 28, 2014
So I'm sure your analysis will turn out to be true in a few days.
1) Action-Reaction: Price is overbought - most or all of candle body stays over Keltner Channels for multiple days. The examples pointed to on the chart are 17 and 20 days rather than 1 or some small number;
2) Current price has dipped below 50-day and 100-day EMA and appear likely to continue heading further below them;
3) Other technicals such as KDJ which are weak on a weekly basis and in the process of forming a bottom - something I referred to when posting another chart
As discrete elements none of the things means much of anything. Taken together they paint a picture of which way the price direction is headed.
Was looking at a 12-hour chart of Bitcoin price on another site and the J portion of the KDJ indicator is pretty overextended. It isn't bound by 0 or 100, so it could potentially go higher. However, the last time it got this overextended was back in June when price got up to $658.88 and then turned back down.