Decided to draw 2014/2015 on top of 2018/2019
The end of 2014 saw bitcoin fall from grace. I wasn’t around for it then. (I’D ABSOLUTELY LOVE TO HEAR STORIES OF MARKET SENTIMENT!)
BUT! We can learn from its charts.
2014’s fall was much less volatile compared to 2018.
When the bottom of the 2014 IH&S was set the gentle fall allowed a more confident bull run blowing through the right shoulder in a day.
I believe the 2018 collapse, being so brutal, caused a lot more doubt in traders. This made the right shoulder much less defined as bulls where much more skittish. I’ve made mention of in the crypto chat room that, BTC bulls exhausted themselves on 1/6/2019. I honestly don’t think that pump should’ve happened with such negative sentiment in the market. Hopium won the day, though.
Could the pull back be more volatile? Might we just double bottom sooner and possibly hit lower lows faster than 2015? (I ask this 2 hours after the collapse)
The correlation of 2014/2015 and 2018/2019 has striking similarities. Traders should be using these parallels as the benchmark from which we work going forward.
The first step is to analyze just how hard we fall from the failed IH&S attempt. We should have an answer within a week, i presume.
Another thing to consider is my skill level and the ability to spot a bearish wedge instead of being moon boy “GO GO GO” IH&S. If my lower charting skill level is able to confirm this, what does this spell for future trends? I honestly think bearishness mindsets are setting in for a long haul. Something shocking will have to change our minds and I truly believe it will require insane volume. (See volume for the bottom of 2015 as prime example) What can cause billions in fiat to suddenly flood the market in 2019? It cannot be just us diehards that make this happen.
Maybe the French bank run will garner some attention, but I don’t think it will be enough to get the volume we require. The Russian Government buying bitcoin is also a juicy option. Either way, its my opinion that we have a ways to go before we see the bottom.
BUT! We can learn from its charts.
2014’s fall was much less volatile compared to 2018.
When the bottom of the 2014 IH&S was set the gentle fall allowed a more confident bull run blowing through the right shoulder in a day.
I believe the 2018 collapse, being so brutal, caused a lot more doubt in traders. This made the right shoulder much less defined as bulls where much more skittish. I’ve made mention of in the crypto chat room that, BTC bulls exhausted themselves on 1/6/2019. I honestly don’t think that pump should’ve happened with such negative sentiment in the market. Hopium won the day, though.
Could the pull back be more volatile? Might we just double bottom sooner and possibly hit lower lows faster than 2015? (I ask this 2 hours after the collapse)
The correlation of 2014/2015 and 2018/2019 has striking similarities. Traders should be using these parallels as the benchmark from which we work going forward.
The first step is to analyze just how hard we fall from the failed IH&S attempt. We should have an answer within a week, i presume.
Another thing to consider is my skill level and the ability to spot a bearish wedge instead of being moon boy “GO GO GO” IH&S. If my lower charting skill level is able to confirm this, what does this spell for future trends? I honestly think bearishness mindsets are setting in for a long haul. Something shocking will have to change our minds and I truly believe it will require insane volume. (See volume for the bottom of 2015 as prime example) What can cause billions in fiat to suddenly flood the market in 2019? It cannot be just us diehards that make this happen.
Maybe the French bank run will garner some attention, but I don’t think it will be enough to get the volume we require. The Russian Government buying bitcoin is also a juicy option. Either way, its my opinion that we have a ways to go before we see the bottom.
Comment:
Comment:
is anyones 1st graph loading at the $7.00 mark? or is it just on my end