chxdd
Long

BTCUSD: Finally, a break to the upside! Continuation Triangle.

OKCOIN:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
106 0 2
Elliot Wave Analysis is workout out decently.

We saw this leg up a little sooner than I anticipated. I accumulated A and C and was waiting for E before the unexpected jump past 4000 $CNY (602 area). This doesn't complete Wave 1 of Primary Wave 5 yet. If you check the FIB it rejected right at 0.786. I'm assuming we get more sideways movement and then a break-out heading towards Primary Wave 1's 0.618 (638 area).

I believe that we wont be seeing any downwards movement just yet as %B didn't break through.
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Now, if I'm wrong then I'm setting my stops at the moment we break to the downside of the OBV trend line .
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This move coincided almost perfectly with me moving 90% of my BTC to Cold Storage. I will be attempted to ride this wave carefully with the remaining 10% of my crypto trading equity .

Comment:
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As you can see, we've got a bit more to go before we break out of the Kumo on the Daily.

This 600-zone is also where buyers on June 26, July 7 and August 1st are breaking-even after over a month of hodling (marked as resistance in dashed orange).

I wasn't at my workstation when the green dildo candle went through so I'm not able to say what exactly caused the candle, but, if this doesn't kickstart further buying then we could be in for a longer corrective pattern than initially expected (see Jan 2015 till Sept 2015 complex corrective pattern which was the end of the 2 year Bear market).

Vinny Lingham seems optimistic and has a large following so I'll see this as psychological support for continuing the bullish trend.

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As you can see, on the daily, %B broke through into O/S territory and is behaving correctly with this pull-back.


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On the 4H, we're looking at a green light with T/K above the Kumo and Chinku-Span above price. Be aware that the Kumo does look very thin here (due to price moving so rapidly) so even though the 591 area has showed itself to be a nice pivot point in the past, this isn't showing up currently in BFX's bids.
Comment:
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The only difference on OKC is that we're finding resistance in the Kumo and will find confirmation in the 620-area.
Comment: Let's take a look at our Dailies...
#BFX
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#OKC
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As you can see, our resistance line at 614.39 (#BFX) and 604.82 (#OKC) was crossed and appears to be holding for now. A lot of chatter in the TV chat about this being bot activity.

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-MAs seem to be holding for now and -BB seems to be working its way into a squeeze.

For the short-term, I see this squeeze heading downward and I'll be waiting for this pull-back before adding to my position.

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This is the 1H %B on #OKC ($CNY). $CNY side has been red for a few hours already, so I'll be paying attention to where China takes this. All I can see is that we went into O/B territory here with a lot of room to fall.

And also, I'm seeing some bearish div on the 4H close.
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So, I'll air on the side of caution. I'll wait to see if support holds at 614.39 (#BFX) and 604.82 (#OKC) while also setting some limit orders in the 590 - 600 area.
Comment:
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This is my basic interpretation so far.

I dont believe this recent red candle ended minuette Wave-1 of P5. Rather, I'm expecting this to form another continuation triangle before a final leg up to end minuette Wave-1. We should be creating highs in the 645/650 area and lows in the 638 area before ending minuette Wave-1 and starting the corrective Wave-2 down to the 576 area.

The rest is just general wave behavior. This could break this years ATH or it could end up with a truncated 5th Wave-- giving us a glimpse into the longer Beart Market that follows.

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Even though price is still hunder the Kumo, Kijun Sen is still stacked above Tenkan Sen and Chinkou Span is still above price on BFX.

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When I take a look at OKC, everything is above the Kumo and it's projecting positive price movement into the future.

This, to me, tells me that this isn't a confirmed reversal yet.

What I don't like is that we're back under the 614 (BFX) / 604 (OKC) resistance area that took a lot of time to overcome. On OKC, this dipped us under the 0.786 fib.

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Breaking under 0.786 did put %B into over-sold territory though:

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Which rightly corrected back upwards.

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On the Ichi 4H, we're back under the 614 resistance area. We did get a TK cross but price bounced off of the bottom of the Kumo and I believe that TK will whipsaw back on course.

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On OKC 4H, we're again seeing price projected positive into the future, but again finding resistance in the 604.82 area.

I dont like that we went backwards but we can only play what the market gives us. What I believe happened is a text-book wash-out before the final leg up. If we can break past these resistance areas then people will find more confidence to buy to bring us to completion of minuette Wave-1.

But, if we dont see this break past these resistance areas, bulls will be left exposed to a sell-off and a premature (2 weeks?) completion of minuette Wave-1.
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