BTC looking for confirmation. A Bull and Bear Case..

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Analysis: Utilized Daily indications all looking for confirmation. Remaining Neutral.
The next 24 Hours will be telling.

BTC is sitting at a rather neutral region as I covered in my recent stream, I am looking for price action to confirm a direction.

  • While I currently have a slightly bearish bias due to the negative directional index ( -DI ) holding slightly above the positive ( +DI ), there is a ADX /DI convergence nearing with no clear indication of direction.
  • To further this uncertainty, the RSI is pushing up against 50, indicating yet another neutral region looking for a breakout or rejection.
  • Lastly the MACD is looking to potentially cross the zero line, but still has room to reverse.

What does confirmation look like??
As indicated in Bull (Green) or Bear (Red) on the chart, I would want to see the following:

  • Bull: RSI breaks above 55 corresponding with a solid candle break above fib level 0.618
  • Bear: RSI breaks low, below 38.2 with a solid candle break below $30k

  • Bull: +DI crosses above -DI as well as ADX (White line)
  • Bear: -DI Stays on top and ticks upward and crosses ADX

  • Bull: MACD line (Blue) pulls up and crosses above signal (Orange). This "bullish cross" happening ON the zero line would be a very bullish signal.
  • Bear: MACD crosses below zero line into bearish region.

    Price Action
  • Bull: Upon confirmation of the above indicators, I would anticipate a retest of $34800-$35000 at the top of the descending triangle
  • Bear: Upon confirmation of the above indicators, I would anticipate a test of 100% retracement region at $28375

As more data comes in, I will update this chart as well as utilize it during my BTC streams.


you are awesome
Nice analysis. I've looked through almost all of the indicators to find the one you use, Fib RSI, to no avail. Is that a public indicator?
spreck onsela
@onsela, Hello, and thank you! No Fib RSI is one that I have developed. I am still working on it and trying to create a backtesting strategy for it on here. I'll put out info if I release it 🤙
onsela spreck
@spreck, Oh ok :) Thank you.

BTW I can't catch your streams live because of the time zone but always watch it later. Please keep up the good work! 😊
Very clear and helpfull analysis for a beginner like me. Thanks for sharing!
spreck PjotX
@PjotX, Thank you!
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